Bitcoin Defies Gravity—But Can It Survive the Demand Drought?

Bitcoin's price action is giving HODLers whiplash again. After weathering every black swan event thrown at it, the OG crypto now faces its sneakiest foe yet: apathy.

No miners capitulating. No exchange blowups. Just crickets.

The liquidity crunch no one's talking about

On-chain data shows accumulation addresses loading up while retail sits this dance out—institutional players might be building their stacks during this consolidation phase. Meanwhile, TradFi analysts keep parroting 'lack of catalysts' like it's 2018.

When in doubt, zoom out

The monthly chart still paints a bullish picture: every major demand drought in Bitcoin's history preceded violent upside. But try telling that to leverage traders getting liquidated in this chop.

Wake-up call: if you're waiting for CNBC to tell you when to buy, you've already missed the boat. Again.

$109,370 offers short-term upward potential, the report indicates that a noticeable price jump is unlikely without a new wave of demand.

ContentsWill Bitcoin Ascend?Expectations and Possible ScenariosOverall Market Outlook

Will Bitcoin Ascend?

Recent data shows a decline in Bitcoin’s transaction volume and network activity. The report elaborates on consolidation or a local peak trend in transaction orders and network metrics. There is a noted weakening of buying pressure in the order book, a decrease in volumes, and a rise in profit-taking among short-term investors.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price stands at $109,264, with recent trade agreements in Vietnam supporting its rise over the past 24 hours.

Expectations and Possible Scenarios

According to Bitfinex researchers, while bitcoin might witness short-lived upward movements, prices are more likely to remain within a certain range. The study asserts that for Bitcoin to hit all-time highs again, a new demand wave is essential. Moreover, macroeconomic recovery, robust fund inflow, or increased liquidity in global markets could act as catalysts for a surge.

Bitfinex Research Team stated: “Bitcoin is currently in a waiting phase. It maintains its structural position and as long as it stays above the $94,000-$99,000 range, there is no significant risk of a breakdown. However, for new records, macro-level relaxation, strong ETF fund entries, or a global liquidity explosion are necessary.”

The report also highlights that short-term investors have engaged in intensive selling during the recent rise, causing transaction volume and buying interest to dwindle. Conversely, long-term investors maintaining their positions provides a hopeful note.

Presently, the $94,000-$99,000 range is a crucial support level, and as long as Bitcoin remains above these levels, there will not be a structural deterioration or bearish trend. However, a downward break might lead investors to engage in panic selling, as they face a greater risk of further declines.

Overall Market Outlook

While a sense of anticipation prevails in the Bitcoin market, stakeholders await a major catalyst to revive the market. During this period, investors’ attention appears to be on external factors and new fund flows that might influence market structure.

The tariff-related process will conclude on July 9. Today, with the U.S. market opening, employment data will clearly reveal the tariff effects. The interest rate trajectory will become clear by the end of the month. Combining all these factors, it seems more logical that the macro developments, which have been pressing the market for 6-7 months, might now create a favorable environment for the bulls.

It’s evaluated that for Bitcoin’s price movements to exhibit sharp upward or downward shifts in the short term, a new story or development is necessary. Otherwise, transactions within the current range are expected to continue. Therefore, tracking external developments that might affect the market is crucial for investors. The current analysis highlights that while the BTC market is not open to major disruption at this stage, new driving forces are needed for upward momentum.

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