How US Employment Data Shakes Crypto Markets: Bulls vs. Bears in 2025

US jobs reports just became crypto's most unpredictable catalyst—again.

When payroll numbers drop, Bitcoin rallies. When wages spike, altcoins tank. The Fed's fingerprints are all over this volatility.

Here's the brutal truth: Traders aren't betting on blockchain fundamentals anymore. They're playing macroeconomic bingo with Jerome Powell's printer.

Next week's NFP? Either rocket fuel for DeFi summer 2.0... or another excuse for 'risk-off' liquidations. Place your bets.

(Pro tip: Wall Street 'analysts' will claim they saw it coming—either way.)

This week is set to be pivotal due to an influx of data following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with a critical focus on cryptocurrency markets. The employment report, which has just been released, is particularly significant for investors keen on understanding risk appetite factors. While developments that could potentially hinder risk appetite await, the current spotlight has shifted away from the employment report.

Breaking Down US Economic Data

Cryptocurrencies are notably sensitive to significant US economic data, and today’s employment report is crucial for the crypto sector as it precedes the Fed’s January interest rate decision. Key metrics of the day include non-farm payrolls, unemployment rates, and average earnings.

Analysts had varied predictions for non-farm payrolls, with JPMorgan anticipating -25K for October and 50K for November, while Goldman Sachs expected 10K for October and 55K for November. Meanwhile, Bank of America projected -65K for October and 50K for November. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has attributed the potential for December rate cuts to weakness observed in the labor market.

Notably, there will be no unemployment data for October, and the delayed collection of November data may trigger “technical” issues such as seasonal adjustments, as mentioned by Powell.

• US Unemployment Rate Announced: 4.6% (Expectation: 4.5%, Previous: 4.4%)
• Non-Farm Payrolls Announced: 64K (Expectation: 50K, Previous: 119K)
• Average Earnings Announced: 3.5% (Expectation: 3.6%, Previous: 3.8%)

The decline in average earnings poses concerns for employment; however, the non-farm payroll figures, though slightly better than expected, offer some relief. The positive highlight is the unemployment rate reaching a new peak, which may prove beneficial for cryptocurrencies.