Tesla’s Autonomy Push in 2024: How Analysts Are Rethinking the Stock’s Valuation
- Why Tesla’s Car Deliveries No Longer Matter
- The $25 Billion Robot Bet: Optimus Goes Mainstream
- TerraFab: Tesla’s Chip Gambit to Control Its Destiny
- Robotaxis Accelerate—No More “Someday”
- FAQs: Tesla’s Pivot Explained
Tesla's pivot from car deliveries to autonomy and robotics is reshaping Wall Street's perception of its stock. With Elon Musk doubling down on Optimus robots, TerraFab chips, and robotaxis, the company’s $25 billion ambition is no longer a distant dream—it’s a 2024 reality. Here’s why traditional auto metrics no longer apply.
Why Tesla’s Car Deliveries No Longer Matter
If you’re still obsessing over Tesla’s quarterly delivery numbers, you’re missing the bigger picture. The company’s Q4 2023 report showed a 16% drop in car deliveries, but Elon Musk shrugged it off during the earnings call: “I’m fine with that.” Why? Because Tesla isn’t just a car company anymore. Musk has sidelined the Model S and X to free up factory space for humanoid robots. Even Tesla’s mission statement now touts “extraordinary abundance” through autonomy and AI—a vision Musk prioritized over financial results during the call.
The $25 Billion Robot Bet: Optimus Goes Mainstream
William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer crunched the numbers: If Tesla produces 500,000 Optimus robots annually at $50,000 each, that’s $25 billion in revenue. Musk claims the Optimus V3 prototype launches this year, with mass production starting in 2027. This isn’t sci-fi—it’s a tangible roadmap with real investment behind it.
TerraFab: Tesla’s Chip Gambit to Control Its Destiny
To avoid reliance on external suppliers, Tesla is building its own semiconductor platform, TerraFab. This multibillion-dollar project aims to power everything from self-driving cars to Optimus’ AI brain. As Musk put it, “Hardware and software control is non-negotiable for autonomy.” The MOVE mirrors Apple’s chip strategy but with higher stakes—Tesla’s entire robotics and AI ecosystem depends on it.
Robotaxis Accelerate—No More “Someday”
Musk declared 2024 the “year of the robotaxi ramp,” with no updates on new consumer EVs. The shift from ownership to autonomy is now. Tesla’s forward P/E of 196 (vs. Ford’s and GM’s sub-10 multiples) reflects Wall Street’s verdict: This isn’t an auto stock. It’s a bet on the AI-driven mobility revolution.
FAQs: Tesla’s Pivot Explained
Why did Tesla abandon its delivery-focused model?
Musk believes autonomy and robotics offer higher margins and scalability than traditional car sales. The numbers support him—Optimus alone could match Tesla’s 2023 auto revenue by 2027.
How does TerraFab compare to competitors like NVIDIA?
Unlike NVIDIA’s general-purpose chips, TerraFab is custom-built for Tesla’s AI stack. It’s a vertical integration play, similar to Google’s TPUs but for robots and cars.
Is Tesla still making vehicles?
Yes, but only as a side hustle. Semi-trucks and Roadsters may continue, but the growth engine is now autonomy.
