Bitcoin at Risk of Losing $100K Support – Critical BTC Price Analysis (Nov 4, 2025)
- Is Bitcoin's Bull Run Over? Key Technical Levels to Watch
- The EMA Death Cross That Could Spell Trouble
- Institutional Exodus: Smart Money Heading for the Exits?
- Historical Patterns: Are We Repeating 2021's Mistakes?
- Bitcoin Price Analysis Q&A
The cryptocurrency market is holding its breath as Bitcoin teeters dangerously close to the psychological $100,000 support level. Our analysis of BTC's current technical setup reveals a market at a crossroads, with both bullish and bearish arguments carrying weight. As of November 4, 2025, Bitcoin trades at $103,800, down 3.5% in 24 hours, while the broader crypto market shows nearly uniform losses across top assets (excluding stablecoins).
Is Bitcoin's Bull Run Over? Key Technical Levels to Watch
The daily chart paints a concerning picture for BTC bulls. bitcoin is dangerously close to closing below $106,000 for the first time in five months - a move that would confirm a significant trend reversal. The BTCC research team notes that BTC has already broken below the $108,300 support zone, establishing the first lower low since September 2024.
Bitcoin (BTC) TradingView Chart
The EMA Death Cross That Could Spell Trouble
Moving averages are flashing warning signals that seasoned traders know to respect. The 9-week EMA is approaching a potential bearish crossover with the 21-week EMA - when this last occurred, BTC plummeted to $78,400. The 4-hour chart shows similar concerning signs with negative moving average crossovers and price action below key trendlines.
However, not all hope is lost. The $104,000 support level previously triggered a 10% bounce in late October, and the current RSI near 30 suggests Bitcoin is nearing oversold territory. "We could see a short-term relief rally before any further downside," notes a BTCC market analyst.
Bitcoin (BTC) 4-hour Chart
Institutional Exodus: Smart Money Heading for the Exits?
On-chain data and institutional flows add weight to the bearish case. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent outflows since October 29, according to Coinglass data. This matters because these institutional players typically lead accumulation cycles - their retreat suggests professional investors see limited upside potential in the NEAR term.
The spot market tells a similar story, with sell orders outpacing buys by over $4 billion in the past 24 hours. "When you see this kind of order book imbalance, it usually means we're not done seeing downside," observes veteran trader Mark Russo.
Bitcoin ETF Flows (Source: Coinglass)
Historical Patterns: Are We Repeating 2021's Mistakes?
The BTC/SPX ratio (Bitcoin vs S&P 500) has closed below its 50-week simple moving average for three consecutive weeks - a level that previously supported BTC during bull markets. Analyst BRETT notes this weakness relative to traditional markets often precedes risk-off periods.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley offers a counterpoint: "What if the expected 2026 bear market has already been front-run? We might have been in it for much of this year." His November 4 tweet suggests the market may have prematurely priced in a downturn.
The monthly chart still shows an overall bullish structure, but BTC is testing critical Fibonacci levels. A break below the 0.382 retracement at $94,686 could open the door to a retest of the $74,725 lows. Conversely, holding above $100,000 could set the stage for another leg up.
Bitcoin Monthly Chart (Source: TradingView)
Bitcoin Price Analysis Q&A
What's the most critical support level for Bitcoin right now?
The $100,000 psychological level is crucial, followed by technical support at $94,686 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement). Losing these could accelerate declines toward $78,400.
Are institutional investors still bullish on Bitcoin?
Recent ETF outflows suggest cooling institutional interest, though some like Bitwise's CEO believe much of the bearishness may already be priced in.
Could this just be a healthy correction before new highs?
Possibly. The RSI near oversold levels and previous support at $104,000 could spark a bounce, but sustained buying above $108,300 is needed to confirm bullish continuation.
How does Bitcoin's current technical setup compare to previous cycles?
Similar to mid-cycle corrections in past bull markets, though the EMA crossovers and SPX ratio weakness warrant caution.
What would signal a return to bullish momentum?
A daily close above $108,300 with strong volume, ideally accompanied by renewed ETF inflows and spot market buying pressure.
