Trump’s $150 Billion Immigration Crackdown Shrinks Foreign-Born Workforce – What It Means for the US Economy
- How Is Trump’s Immigration Policy Affecting the US Labor Market?
- Can Native-Born Workers Really Replace Immigrant Labor?
- What’s the Long-Term Economic Forecast?
- FAQ: Trump’s Immigration Policy and the Economy
President Trump’s aggressive $150 billion immigration enforcement push is rapidly reducing the foreign-born labor force, sparking debates about its economic impact. While the WHITE House argues unemployed Americans can fill the gaps, economists warn of slower GDP growth, wage pressures, and labor shortages in key industries. This analysis dives into the data, expert opinions, and long-term consequences of this policy shift. ---
How Is Trump’s Immigration Policy Affecting the US Labor Market?
Foreign-born workers, who’ve long filled critical roles in agriculture, hospitality, and construction, are vanishing from the workforce at an unprecedented rate. For three consecutive months, their numbers have declined—even as the US added 147,000 jobs in June. This trend coincides with Trump’s push for his “Big Beautiful Bill,” a $150 billion legislative package funding border enforcement, mass deportations, and expanded detention facilities. Politico calls it the largest immigration crackdown in decades, now colliding with a tight labor market where migrant workers once bridged gaps.
Five key examples highlight the tension: 1. Farm Labor Shortages: California growers report unpicked crops as deportations rise. 2. Hotel Staffing Crises: Las Vegas casinos offer signing bonuses to attract replacements. 3. Construction Delays: Houston homebuilders face 20% longer project timelines. 4. Tech Sector Strain: H-1B visa rejections hit 40% under stricter rules. 5. Healthcare Gaps: Rural hospitals struggle to replace immigrant nurses.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underscored the risk: “Slowing labor force growth means slower economic growth—it’s already happening.”
---Can Native-Born Workers Really Replace Immigrant Labor?
The White House insists unemployed Americans will step in. Stephen Miran, Trump’s economic advisor, cites 8% youth unemployment and proposes tax cuts for overtime work as incentives. “There’s latent labor supply waiting for the right policies,” he told reporters. But Glassdoor’s Daniel Zhao counters: “Native workers aren’t lining up for 80-hour farm weeks or overnight hotel shifts—even with higher pay.”
Data reveals mismatches: - Wage Sensitivity: A USDA study found native-born workers demand 30% higher pay for farm work. - Skill Gaps: 60% of construction foremen say apprentices lack migrant crews’ experience. - Geographic Barriers: Rural meatpacking plants can’t attract urban job seekers. - Demographic Shifts: Retiring baby boomers outpace Gen Z entrants. - Automation Limits: Robots still can’t harvest strawberries or make hotel beds reliably.
Trump privately acknowledged the challenge, telling aides farmers “are screaming about finding workers,” per insider leaks.
---What’s the Long-Term Economic Forecast?
A Deutsche Bank report warns employment growth could soon plateau at 50,000 monthly jobs—half the Biden-era average—if migration flatlines. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects this could shave 0.3–0.4% off annual GDP by 2025. While wages might rise slightly, sectors like agriculture (where migrants hold 73% of jobs) face existential threats.
Historical parallels are grim: 1. 1964 Bracero Program End: Crop yields dropped 15% within two years. 2. 2013 UK Immigration Caps: Food inflation spiked 9%. 3. Japan’s Aging Crisis: GDP growth stalled below 1% for decades. 4. Post-9/11 Visa Backlogs: Tech firms relocated 250,000 jobs overseas. 5. 2021 UK Lorry Driver Shortage: Gas stations ran dry nationwide.
“This isn’t just about today’s jobs—it’s about who builds tomorrow’s infrastructure,” warned AEI scholar Madeline Zavodny.
---FAQ: Trump’s Immigration Policy and the Economy
How many jobs rely on immigrant workers?
18% of the US workforce is foreign-born, concentrated in agriculture (73%), construction (35%), and hospitality (28%).
Will wages rise due to fewer migrants?
CBO predicts modest gains (1–2%) but notes automation may offset them. Farm wages ROSE 8% in 2023—yet workers remain scarce.
What’s the “Breakeven Rate” for job growth?
Deutsche Bank estimates 50,000 monthly jobs needed to sustain growth—down from 100,000 under higher migration.
Are deportations increasing?
Yes. ICE removals rose 42% in 2024; border encounters fell 60%, signaling a drying labor pipeline.
Which industries are most vulnerable?
Agriculture, hospitality, construction, healthcare, and tech face acute shortages without migrant labor.
