Fidelity Predicts 8.3 Million Bitcoin Will Turn ’Illiquid’ By 2032 - Here’s Why It Matters

Bitcoin's supply squeeze just got a major credibility boost from institutional heavyweight Fidelity.

The Scarcity Accelerator

Fidelity's latest analysis projects that a staggering 8.3 million BTC will essentially vanish from trading markets within the next seven years. We're not talking about lost keys or forgotten passwords—this represents strategic accumulation by long-term holders who treat Bitcoin like digital gold 2.0.

Wall Street Meets Cypherpunk

Traditional finance finally understands what crypto natives have known for years: the best coins never hit the market twice. While traditional analysts fret over liquidity metrics, Bitcoin's value proposition actually strengthens when supply gets locked away in cold storage—something that would give any equity analyst an aneurysm.

The Institutional Stampede

ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign wealth funds are creating a buying pressure that makes previous bull markets look like amateur hour. They're not trading—they're accumulating with the relentless patience of a glacier.

Price Implications? Obvious.

Basic economics suggests that when demand outstrips shrinking supply, something's gotta give. And that something is likely to be price discovery hitting levels that make current all-time highs look quaint.

Meanwhile, traditional finance keeps trying to apply twentieth-century metrics to twenty-first-century assets—because nothing says 'relevant' like evaluating digital scarcity with tools designed for analyzing railroad bonds.

The great Bitcoin absorption event isn't coming—it's already happening. And the market will never be the same.

Bitcoin Illiquid Supply Could Jump To 8.3 Million

For their analysis, Fidelity used two distinct BTC cohorts to determine the illiquid supply. The first cohort consists of BTC that was last moved seven or more years ago. The second cohort includes public companies that hold at least 1,000 BTC.

Bitcoin included in the first cohort was found to be highly illiquid, as its total portion of the BTC supply has only increased quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) since tracking became possible in 2016. The following chart shows the quarterly net change observed in this cohort.

When it comes to public companies holding more than 1,000 BTC, there has only been one QoQ decrease in total supply since 2020. As of June 30, this cohort held a total of 830,000 BTC.

Notably, public companies holding more than 1,000 BTC represent 97% of the total BTC held across all public companies. It is also worth noting that the vast majority of these holdings are concentrated among 30 companies.

When looking from a macro viewpoint, it can be observed that there has been an accelerating trend of holding BTC versus trading or transacting. Specifically, the rising adoption of BTC among public companies has led to a rise in illiquid supply since Q3 2024. The following chart illustrates the rise in BTC’s illiquid supply.

The report adds that at the end of Q2 2025, BTC’s circulating supply hovered around 19.8 million. Of this, close to 8.3 million BTC could become illiquid by Q2 2032. The following chart shows this projection.

The analysis predicts that Bitcoin’s maximum finite supply of 21 million is likely to become relatively more illiquid over time. Further, the trend of more companies buying BTC is likely to provide additional momentum.

The following chart further shows the change in Bitcoin’s liquid, illiquid, and still to be mined supply since Q2 2010. As can be seen, illiquid supply only started appearing in Q2 2020 and has already doubled since then.

BTC Adoption Continues To Grow

A trend spearheaded by Strategy – formerly known as MicroStrategy – the corporate adoption of BTC is not slowing down. The firm recently added to its BTC holdings, as it bought another 525 BTC.

Earlier this month, Japanese investment firm Metaplanet shared plans to raise $880 million to purchase more BTC. Similarly, Cyprus-based firm Robin Energy allocated $5 million toward its Bitcoin strategy.

Latest data shows that total BTC held by public firms recently crossed the one million mark, signifying the increasing trust in BTC as a reliable store of value. At press time, BTC trades at $115,767, up 1% in the past 24 hours.