Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Sitting on 215% Profits – Is a Massive Sell-Off Imminent?
Bitcoin's long-term holders (LTHs) are swimming in profits—average unrealized gains just hit 215%. The question now: Will they cash out and trigger a market downturn?
When HODLers become sellers
Historically, LTH profit-taking at these levels has preceded corrections. With Bitcoin's price hovering near all-time highs, the temptation to lock in gains grows stronger by the day.
The institutional trap
Wall Street's latest 'crypto experts' will claim this is healthy profit-taking—conveniently ignoring they missed the bottom. Again. Meanwhile, retail traders brace for potential volatility as whales eye exits.
215% reasons to be cautious
Whether this becomes a full-blown correction or just a speed bump depends on one thing: Do the OGs believe this rally still has legs? Their wallets—not analyst hot takes—will decide Bitcoin's next move.
Long-Term Holders Reach Critical Zone: Bitcoin Tests Patience
Bitcoin’s recent price action has frustrated many investors, as the market continues to drift sideways in low volatility. After weeks of trading within a narrow range, market participants are beginning to lose patience. The prolonged consolidation presents downside risk if momentum fails to return soon. Despite this, the broader macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable. The U.S. stock market recently reached new all-time highs, and geopolitical tensions have eased, suggesting a supportive environment for risk assets like Bitcoin in the months ahead.
Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights pointing to a crucial on-chain signal — long-term holders (LTHs) are currently sitting on an average unrealized profit of 215% above their cost basis. Historically, when this metric crosses 300%, it marks a level where seasoned holders begin to distribute coins into strength. At 215%, the market is in the “orderly profit-taking” zone — not yet euphoric, but approaching levels that have historically led to increased sell pressure.
This on-chain signal suggests that while a breakout remains possible, upside may be limited unless new demand steps in. If the rally fails to extend soon, there’s a growing risk that long-term holders could begin offloading positions prematurely. This dynamic creates a delicate balance — bulls need to ignite momentum to attract new capital, or else risk seeing supply overwhelm price. For now, all eyes remain on $112,000 as the key level that could define Bitcoin’s next major move.
BTC Stuck Below Resistance
Bitcoin remains tightly range-bound between $107,500 and $109,600, with volatility continuing to compress as bulls attempt to push the price above resistance. As shown in the 8-hour chart, BTC has tested the $109,300 zone multiple times without managing a decisive breakout, suggesting strong selling pressure at this level. On the downside, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages (SMA) at $107,489, $106,572, and $105,448, respectively, continue to act as dynamic support levels.
Volume remains muted, signaling a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears. The longer BTC stays within this tight range, the more violent the eventual breakout could be. The price is currently hovering above all major SMAs, which is typically a bullish signal, and each dip toward the $107K zone has been met with buyer support.
If buyers manage to reclaim $109,300 with volume confirmation, Bitcoin could quickly revisit the all-time high NEAR $112K. However, failure to hold above the moving averages could send BTC down to retest $103,600 — a key support level from late June. Overall, Bitcoin’s structure suggests that a significant move is coming, but directionality will depend on whether bulls can break resistance or bears regain momentum.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
