Bitcoin Stages Comeback as Leverage Stays Subdued—Are Bulls Growing Up?
Bitcoin’s latest rebound comes with an unexpected twist: funding rates remain eerily calm. No wild leverage spikes, no liquidations bloodbath—just steady accumulation. Is this the sign of a more disciplined bull market, or are traders just waiting to YOLO their bonuses into the next rally?
Unlike past cycles where euphoric leverage drowned out rationality, current open interest looks almost... responsible. Either crypto traders finally read the ’Risk Management’ chapter, or Wall Street’s algo wolves haven’t gotten the pump memo yet.
One hedge fund manager sniffed, ’If this is maturity, I miss the cocaine-fueled 20,000% altcoin days.’ The market shrugged—and kept stacking sats.
Bitcoin Testing Resistance As Signs Point To A Healthier Rally
Bitcoin is currently battling key supply levels after a volatile weekend that saw the price surge to $107,000 before quickly retracing over 4% into lower demand zones. This sharp move triggered caution across the market, with many analysts now calling for a potential pullback. With bitcoin hovering near the psychologically important $100K level, bulls must defend this zone to maintain the current bullish structure and avoid further downside.
Resistance remains strong between $105K and the previous ATH NEAR $109K, where liquidity clusters could either absorb buying pressure or trigger an explosive breakout. However, according to new insights from CryptoQuant, the nature of this rally is notably different from prior cycles.
In previous bull runs, each new ATH was followed by overheated funding rates and aggressive market buy volume, both indicators of short-term speculative excess. These surges were consistently followed by corrections that reset the market. This time, however, funding rates remain moderate, and Binance’s buy volume is trending downward. While this may appear as weak momentum on the surface, it could actually be a sign of a more stable and sustainable rally.
Unlike past overheated phases, the market now appears lighter and more cautious. Despite short-term volatility, buy volume has shown a steady uptrend since 2023, indicating continued interest from long-term participants. This underlying strength suggests that Bitcoin still has room to grow and may be gearing up for a more durable MOVE into price discovery, so long as $100K holds.
Price Action Showing Volatility Amid Breakout Attempts
Bitcoin is currently trading near $105,000, consolidating after a volatile push that briefly tapped $107,000. On the 4-hour chart, BTC is forming a tight range between $103,600 and $105,500, with visible support resting at $103,600 — a level that has acted as a springboard for multiple bounces in recent days. The price structure suggests a potential breakout attempt, but failure to hold current levels could lead to a retest of $100,000.
The 200-period simple and exponential moving averages (SMA and EMA) continue sloping upward, reflecting the strength of the ongoing uptrend. Notably, BTC remains well above both indicators — the SMA near $96,600 and the EMA around $97,600 — showing that the macro trend remains intact for now.
Volume has declined slightly during the consolidation, hinting that traders are waiting for confirmation before positioning. A breakout above the local highs near $107,000 could open the door to price discovery and a run toward the all-time high near $109,000. However, if BTC loses $103,600 support, bearish momentum could quickly build.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
