Dogecoin Sheds Meme Status as 21Shares Files for ETF—Yes, Seriously
Wall Street’s latest circus act? A Dogecoin ETF. 21Shares just lobbed the paperwork into the regulatory void, betting real money on the internet’s favorite joke asset. Because nothing says ’mature market’ like institutionalizing a cryptocurrency that started as a Shiba Inu meme.
The filing signals a surreal pivot—Dogecoin, once the poster child of crypto absurdity, is now elbowing for a seat at the big kids’ table. Never mind that its utility still trails its hype; when there’s fees to be skimmed, finance will find a way.
Love it or hate it, this move forces a reckoning: either the market’s finally embracing risk-on innovation, or we’ve officially run out of ideas. Either way, buckle up—the DOGE days aren’t over.
21Shares Bullish Scenario For Dogecoin
Following the release of its Dogecoin ETF filing to the US SEC, 21Shares published a report outlining three potential scenarios for the meme coin’s future price performance, ultimately leaning toward a more bullish position. The report also highlighted the advantages of adding Dogecoin to investment portfolios, revealing that a modest 1% allocation to DOGE, within a 60/40 investment structure already enhanced with a 3% Bitcoin allocation, could significantly improve overall returns.
For its bullish case scenario, the firm noted that the Doge price has significantly outperformed many altcoins over the past year. Due to its penchant for explosive rallies and historical trends that support a potential price surge, the asset management firm envisions Dogecoin achieving explosive growth similar to its last major pump.
Before the last bull run, Dogecoin hit a price bottom at $0.007. Fast-forward two years, the meme coin has reached another bottom around $0.0585 this cycle, representing an astonishing Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 189%. If the meme coin were to mirror the same pace over the next two years, its price could climb to $1.42, marking a historic milestone and a new all-time high.
In this bullish scenario, Dogecoin’s price surge is expected to be driven by renewed meme coin mania, surge in real-world adoption, regulatory clarity, and major integration possibilities — such as Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk incorporating DOGE payments on X (formerly Twitter). Should retail interest and demand fully return, the meme coin is expected to not only reclaim its previous all-time highs but double them.
DOGE’s Bearish And Neutral Case
Moving on, 21Shares also outlined a bear case scenario for Dogecoin. While the meme coin’s fundamentals have strengthened, there are still risks of a muted price performance or even further downsides.
The asset management noted that Dogecoin’s recent rally, fueled by post-US election enthusiasm, may have prematurely front-run its true market cycle. Expanding on this view, 21Shares projects that if Dogecoin grows at a modest 10% CAGR from its 2021 peak of $0.73, its price will reach $0.38 by 2025, doubling its current value but failing to hit a new all-time high.
In a more neutral scenario, 21Shares assumes the total crypto market cap may peak at $5 trillion during this cycle. Under these conditions, if DOGE captures a 3% market share, down from its 4% previously, the meme coin’s market cap could surge to $150 billion. This would place its price at approximately $1, representing a 5.5X gain from current levels of around $0.175.
