Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Moment: Three Paths Ahead as Critical Ratio Hinges on Edge
Bitcoin’s market ratio teeters at a pivotal level—what comes next could redefine the crypto landscape.
The bullish case: A clean breakout sends BTC dominance soaring, leaving altcoins choking on its dust.
The sideways shuffle: Traders get stuck in range-bound purgatory while institutional money plays golf (and waits).
The nightmare scenario: A rejection here triggers the mother of all alt seasons—just as regulators finally ’understand’ DeFi.
Place your bets—the house always wins, but crypto traders haven’t read the terms and conditions.
Bitcoin Eyes Bullish Continuation As Momentum Builds
Bitcoin is regaining strength after months of selling pressure, with bulls now attempting to reclaim control. Since the breakout above the $90K level, momentum has gradually shifted, and Axel Adler suggests the market is entering what he calls the “start” rally zone. This is based on the on-chain Ratio indicator, which currently sits around 0.8—or 80%—a historically significant level that often precedes major market moves.
If this ratio breaks above 1.0 and holds, it would likely confirm a strong bullish impulse. In this optimistic scenario, key metrics like NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) would signal an expansion phase, potentially pushing Bitcoin to revisit its cycle pattern seen in 2017 and 2021. A rally toward $150K to $175K would not be out of the question in such a case.
However, if the ratio remains between 0.8 and 1.0, the market may enter a consolidation phase. In this base-case scenario, Bitcoin would likely trade between $90K and $110K, with participants holding positions but not adding significant exposure. This range-bound behavior would suggest caution remains, despite a positive longer-term outlook.
A more cautious outlook emerges if the ratio drops toward 0.75 or lower. This would likely trigger profit-taking from short-term holders, putting pressure on the market and possibly driving Bitcoin down to the $70K–$85K range. Given that a correction has already taken place, Adler believes the first two scenarios are currently more probable. Still, macroeconomic risks—such as recession fears or geopolitical shocks—could tip the scale.
Overall, Bitcoin appears to be warming up for a decisive move, and the next few weeks may confirm whether this is the beginning of a breakout or a continuation of broader consolidation.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bulls Challenge Key Resistance at $96K
Bitcoin is trading at $96,130, continuing its short-term uptrend after a sharp rally from the $81K level in mid-April. The daily chart shows strong momentum, with BTC now consolidating just below the $96K resistance zone—a level that previously acted as support in February and March before the breakdown. A successful breakout above this zone would open the door for a test of the psychological $100K level, followed by the next major resistance at $103,600.
Notably, both the 200-day SMA ($89,843) and 200-day EMA ($85,926) have been cleanly reclaimed during this recent move, signaling a clear shift in trend structure. Volume has remained steady during the rally, though a noticeable increase in buying pressure would help confirm continuation.
The current structure resembles a bullish continuation pattern, but BTC must break and close above the $96K mark with conviction to confirm upside momentum. Failure to do so may result in a pullback to retest support zones around $92K and $89K.
Overall, the trend remains bullish in the short term, but caution is warranted as the $96K–$100K range represents a critical supply zone where many sellers may step in. A decisive move in the coming days could shape Bitcoin’s direction for May.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
