BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Will Dominate All Others Within a Decade, Says Saylor

MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor just dropped a bombshell prediction: BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF will eclipse every other ETF—gold, S&P 500, you name it—within 10 years. The ultimate ’sell your bonds, buy crypto’ flex.

Why it matters: When the world’s largest asset manager ($10 trillion AUM) pivots to Bitcoin, even gold bugs start sweating. BlackRock’s IBIT already holds over $18B in BTC—while legacy finance still argues about ’digital tulips.’

The cynical take: Wall Street spent a decade fighting Bitcoin... until they realized they could charge 0.8% fees on it. Now watch them rebrand as ’blockchain innovators.’

Will Bitcoin Make BlackRock’s ETF The World’s Largest?

Skepticism, however, was swift—and data-driven. “Just for some context on this… Largest ETF, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has taken in over $51 bil just this year. IBIT’s total assets = $54 bil. Would be [a] Herculean feat for IBIT,” wrote Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store and host of ETF Prime, in a post on X. Geraci’s framing underscores the magnitude of the gap: VOO’s $51 billion of 2025 net inflows alone nearly matches IBIT’s entire asset base.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas offered a similarly tempered outlook. “I would never say never re IBIT bc it broke every conceivable record its rookie year but… King VOO is curr 10x bigger and hauls in 5x more cash every day = would take a flat or negative decade for US stocks while BTC moons,” he posted, pointing to the entrenched scale and relentless cash generation of the Vanguard fund.

Balchunas elaborated that for IBIT to close the gap organically it would need “well north of $1 b/day, like $3 b or $4 b/day if it hopes to gain ground,” concluding that “some extraordinary sht would have to… happen but it’s poss.” When asked whether investors might absorb bitcoin’s “perfect savings” narrative more rapidly, Balchunas distilled his answer to “Two words, two syllables: cash flow,” highlighting the gravitational pull that dividend and earnings streams exert on portfolio construction.

Saylor’s forecast lands in a market environment already primed by BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink’s own headline-grabbing Bitcoin thesis. On 22 January 2025, during a World Economic Forum panel in Davos, Fink told Bloomberg that widespread institutional allocation—“2% or even 5%” of portfolios, he said, citing a recent discussion with a sovereign wealth fund—could propel Bitcoin to “$500,000, $600,000, $700,000 per Bitcoin.”

Describing the asset as a “currency of fear,” Fink argued that Bitcoin’s borderless design provides a hedge against “the debasement of your currency, or the economic or political stability of your country.”

For Saylor, whose corporate-treasury Bitcoin strategy has made Strategy a Leveraged proxy on the token’s price, Fink’s framing offers macro-level validation: if sovereign wealth funds follow through on exploratory conversations, demand could eclipse the finite supply captured inside IBIT. The question—posed implicitly by Geraci’s and Balchunas’ numbers—is whether that demand can outpace the relentless inflows into equity index stalwarts during a decade in which global investors remain wedded to cash-generative, regulation-familiar assets.

At press time, BTC traded at $93,656.