Major cryptocurrency investors are positioning for a sharp downturn despite Wednesday's price surge, with Bitcoin and Ethereum whales accumulating significant short positions that analysts warn could trigger a 10% market correction. The bearish sentiment among large holders contradicts the brief rally that saw BTC reclaim $71,000 and ETH reach $2,200, creating what market observers describe as a dangerous divergence between retail optimism and institutional caution.
Bullish momentum appears to have returned for Bitcoin and Ethereum as both assets are now trading above key resistance levels that previously triggered downside action. Even during the period, key traders’ sentiment remained unchanged, reflecting a negative outlook for these top assets.
An X post from Alphractal, an advanced investment and on-chain data analytics platform, is showing a notable shift in sentiment among large investors or whales. The signal is emerging from the Whale Vs Retail Delta metric.
Specifically, whales in both Bitcoin and Ethereum are increasingly favoring or opening short positions over long positions. This shift implies that some of the market’s most powerful players are preparing for a possible decline, even though price action may seem reasonably constant on the surface.
When investors notably shift towards bearish bets, it usually implies that caution is building or investors are expecting the broader correction to extend. As whales continue to bet against the two leading assets, this pattern is likely to result in persistent selling pressure throughout the market.
According to the platform, whales are more interested in shorts than longs, whereas retail traders are doing the opposite and increasing their exposure. Retailers opening longs during a volatile period reflects growing optimism and confidence that the current phase offers buying opportunities.
This striking divergence between whales and retail holders’ sentiment and activity could create significant tension in the market. In the meantime, this pattern is likely to serve as a crucial part in shaping the next move for BTC and ETH.
After examining the Bitcoin On-Chain Price Dynamics, Teddy highlighted that the current price action is more of a compression than a reset. While BTC has fallen roughly 50% from the 2025 high, the on-chain structure still does not look like a full reset.
During the time of the post, BTC’s price was located near $68,600. Meanwhile, Realized Price remained close to $54,100, Long-Term Holder Realized Price stayed near $42,200, and Investor Price was close to $49,500. At this point, this positioning is keeping the broader cost-basis structure intact.
The market has cooled, but the price has not yet broken into the deeper on-chain support band, with higher pressure on the structure. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the STH Realized Price, which is close to $79,200, and the True Market Mean Price, which is close to $78,300.
Teddy noted that recent buyers remain under pressure as the rice has not yet reclaimed the zone where the structure begins to appear healthier. With sideways price action, profitability has reduced, and short-term holders are still underwater. However, the broader realized base has not yet been lost.
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