Bitcoin-Stock Correlation Hits Weakest Level Since 2022—Will It Last?
Bitcoin just cut the cord.
For the first time since 2022, the world's largest cryptocurrency is moving to its own rhythm, decoupling from the traditional stock market's gravitational pull. The correlation between Bitcoin and major equity indices has plunged to its weakest point in years, sparking a fierce debate: Is this a fleeting anomaly or the new normal for digital gold?
The Great Decoupling
Analysts are scrambling to explain the divergence. Some point to Bitcoin's maturing narrative as a macro hedge—a digital safe haven that investors are finally treating separately from speculative tech stocks. Others see it as a simple function of crypto's unique catalysts: halving cycles, regulatory clarity in key markets, and institutional adoption that's creating its own demand engine.
The data doesn't lie. The rolling correlation metric has collapsed, suggesting the days of Bitcoin slavishly tracking the S&P 500 might be over.
A Test of Independence
This isn't just a technical blip. A sustained decoupling would fundamentally reshape portfolio strategy. For years, financial advisors dismissed Bitcoin as 'just another risk asset'—correlated tech junk for the gambling crowd. A standalone price action shatters that lazy analogy and forces a genuine reassessment of its role in a diversified portfolio.
Can it hold? The true test will come at the next major market stress event. If Bitcoin rallies while stocks tumble, its hedge credentials get a massive boost. If it crashes in lockstep, the decoupling gets dismissed as a temporary quirk—another finance fad for the history books.
One cynical take from the old guard? 'It's not a hedge; it's just that both markets got bored of the same news cycle.' Ouch.
The next few months will tell. Either Bitcoin proves its independence, or it goes back to being Wall Street's weird, volatile cousin. The correlation chart isn't just a line on a screen—it's a battle for Bitcoin's very identity.
Bitcoin Has Broken Away From S&P 500
In a new post on X, Santiment has discussed how bitcoin has moved relative to the stock market recently. The number one digital asset has faced a downtrend alongside the rest of the cryptocurrency sector in the last few months that has taken its price below $70,000. Compared to six months ago, BTC is today down 43%.
Historically, the asset has generally shown some degree of correlation with the stocks. “For years, Bitcoin has often moved in the same direction as the stock market, particularly the S&P 500,” noted Santiment. Lately, however, this trend has broken. While BTC has gone down, the S&P 500 is up 7% in the past six months. Below is a chart that shows how the price trajectories of the two assets have compared.
According to Santiment, this is the weakest correlation that Bitcoin has shown to the stocks since November 2022. Back then, the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX induced a price crash for the asset that caused it to diverge from the S&P 500.
This previous breakaway for the cryptocurrency was different from the current one, however, as it lasted only briefly. The latest one, on the other hand, has been rather persistent. “Instead of moving alongside equities, Bitcoin has sharply underperformed while traditional markets have remained stable and gold has thrived,” said the analytics firm.
Now, will the decoupling that Bitcoin has experienced from the S&P 500 last? If the past is anything to go by, the answer may lean toward no. “Historically, when an asset that is usually correlated breaks away in this dramatic fashion, it typically does not stay disconnected forever,” explained Santiment.
The S&P 500 isn’t the only traditional asset that Bitcoin has diverged from; Gold has also charted a different path from BTC recently, despite the latter being popularly considered the former’s digital analogue.
In an X post, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has shared the data of an indicator that tracks the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and Gold.
As displayed in the above graph, BTC mostly observed a positive degree of correlation to Gold between 2022 and the first three quarters of 2025. Since the last quarter of 2025, however, the correlation metric has plummeted into the negative zone for the assets.
A negative correlation implies that while the two assets exhibit a relationship, it’s of the negative kind. In other words, it means the assets are moving in opposite directions. “Bitcoin is in a “not digital gold” period,” said Young Ju.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $66,000, down 2% over the last week.
