Bitcoin’s Realized Profit/Loss Signals Major Structural Shift — Here’s What It Means for 2026

Bitcoin's profit-taking metrics just flashed a signal not seen in years—pointing to a fundamental change in who's holding, and why.

The Realized P/L Breakdown

Forget short-term price gyrations. The realized profit and loss metric cuts through the noise, tracking the actual profit or loss investors lock in when they move coins. Recent data reveals a sharp divergence from past bull-market patterns. Long-term holders aren't selling into strength like they used to. Instead, a new wave of capital—potentially institutional—is absorbing sell pressure, reshaping the market's foundation.

Why This Shift Matters Now

This isn't just a bullish indicator; it's an ownership revolution. The market structure is quietly bypassing the old retail-driven boom-bust cycles. Reduced realized profits suggest stronger hands are accumulating, setting the stage for a more stable—and potentially sustained—advance. It hints at deeper capital pools treating Bitcoin as a strategic asset, not just a speculative trade (though let's be honest, some Wall Street desks are just chasing the volatility they publicly claim to hate).

The underlying message is clear: the asset is maturing. The 2024-2025 accumulation phase is giving way to a new regime. Watch this metric closer than the daily price—it's telling the real story.

Bitcoin Enters 30-Day Cumulative Realized Loss Phase Since October 2023

In a recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, crypto education and research group XWIN Research Japan dissects the present on-chain situation of Bitcoin, with the center of attraction being the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss metric, which shows the leading cryptocurrency has recorded a net realized loss on a 30-day basis for the first time since October 2023. 

However, the losses seen in 2023 were short-lived and rapidly retraced, unlike the current decline, which is broader and more persistent, suggesting a possible structural shift in market dynamics. At this moment, it appears that investors are less-interested in “buying the dip,” nor are they looking to “HODL” through the bitcoin price action, and are more willing to accept losses.

For this reason, the market can be more plausibly described as being in a state of caution. It is, however, worth mentioning that the present phase does not necessarily precede a market crash. If anything, it reflects that Bitcoin may be entering a more volatile phase, independent of speculative frenzies.

Realized Profits Signal Late-Stage Of Bull Cycle 

XWIN Research further reinforces the hypotheses by referencing the trend in realized profits. According to the market experts, Realized Profits peaked in March 2024 at approximately 1.2 million BTC, and reduced slightly to 1.1 million in December 2024. 

As of July, 2025, realized profits had sharply dropped to 517,000 BTC, reflecting an increasing exit of profit-taking activity within the market. But this pales in comparison to the lower 331,000 BTC recorded in October. The analytics group explained that this contraction occurred despite a rise in prices, thus suggesting an absence of deep upside momentum.

The group further highlights that this is a telltale sign of a late-stage bull market, one which was seen in 2021-2022. In this period, realized profits slowly dropped before the Bitcoin price flipped bearish. More shockingly, the annual timeframe tells a similar story, with annual net realized profits contracting from 4.4 million BTC to 2.5 million BTC, just within October 2025 and early 2026. This is also similar to the phase that preceded the bear market of 2022.

In essence, Bitcoin is in a transitioning phase, from a mature bull phase to a volatile environment. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at $89,462. 

Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview