Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Just Warming Up — Here’s Why the Cycle Is Far From Over

Forget the whispers of a peak. The Bitcoin engine is still roaring, and the road ahead looks longer than most traditional finance suits dare to admit.

The Halving Hangover That Never Came

Conventional post-halving fatigue? Nowhere in sight. Instead of a slowdown, the network's fundamentals have tightened like a drum. Hash rate continues its relentless climb, signaling miner confidence isn't just stable—it's aggressively bullish. This isn't a market running on fumes; it's being rebuilt with stronger steel.

Institutional On-Ramps Widen

The floodgates aren't just open; they're being widened. New regulated products are turning what was once a speculative scramble into a systematic allocation. Wall Street's late arrival isn't a closing bell—it's a second-wave investment thesis built on infrastructure the early believers could only dream of. Funny how legitimacy follows price, not the other way around.

Adoption Beyond the Price Chart

Look past the spot price. The real story is in the plumbing. Developer activity on foundational layers hasn't plateaued; it's accelerating. These aren't mere upgrades—they're complete overhauls of scalability and functionality, setting the stage for a utility phase that makes the last cycle look like a dress rehearsal.

The Macro Tailwinds No One Saw Coming

Global fiscal policy seems to be writing Bitcoin's marketing copy. As traditional hedges show their age and inflation narratives resurface, a digital, sovereign asset class starts to look less like a gamble and more like a logical portfolio staple. It's the ultimate irony: the old financial system's woes are Bitcoin's strongest fuel.

So, is the cycle over? Hardly. We're likely witnessing the transition from a speculative frenzy to a sustained, infrastructure-driven maturation. The easy money might have been made, but the smart money is just getting settled in. The final phase often fools everyone—especially those who think they've seen this movie before. After all, in finance, the only cycle that's truly predictable is the one where experts declare the 'new era' is over right before it really begins.

Bitcoin Market Risk Redistribution Ongoing – Here’s Why

In a QuickTake post on January 17, MorenoDV_ postulates that the Bitcoin bull cycle remains on despite the negative events of Q4 2025. Notably, the crypto market leader experienced a heavy 33% price correction after hitting its current all-time high ($126,198) in early October.

Although bitcoin has recorded some modest price recovery in the past month, significant expectations of a bear market remain, driven by a diminished market demand and failure to reclaim key technical levels such as the 365-day MA. Using the data from the Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands, MorenoDV explains that the Bitcoin market is actively redistributing risk. This positive development counters the bearish narrative of a market cycle ending.

With the present spot price around $95,583, the CryptoQuant metric shows that psychological stress is unevenly distributed among Bitcoin holders. Notably, short-term holders, i.e., 1w-1m and 1m-3m cohorts, have realized prices, i.e., $89,255 and $93,504, respectively, below the spot price. This data suggests that these classes of investors are in profit and are experiencing low market pressure, which helps keep fear at bay.

However, mid-term holders of 3m-6m and long-term holders of 6m-12m have realized prices of $114,808, and $100,748 both of which are significantly above the present spot price. However,  both holder cohorts have chosen to bear the discomfort by absorbing losses rather than initiating an aggressive redistribution. 

Therefore, as the spot price rises towards the realized price levels of these stressed cohorts, losses are expected to significantly reduce, eventually easing these pressures on these classes of holders and balancing the market risk. This market development only occurs if the 3m-6m and 6m-12m continue to interpret the present market drawdown as a mere cyclical discomfort rather than a change in market structure. Therefore, there is a need for a sustained bullish narrative and constructive price behavior to keep these investors from seeking a market exit.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $95,265, reflecting a modest 5.3% gain in the last week.