Bitcoin’s Unrealized Losses Are Maturing: 43% Of Underwater Supply Now In Diamond Hands

Bitcoin's underwater supply is getting comfortable. New data reveals a significant shift in who's holding the red—and they're not selling.

The HODLer Takeover

Nearly half of all Bitcoin currently held at a loss has migrated to long-term wallets. These aren't panic sellers; they're conviction holders who've seen cycles before. The data points to a supply squeeze in the making, as weak hands have largely been shaken out, leaving a bedrock of steadfast owners.

What Aging Losses Really Mean

In traditional markets, prolonged losses signal distress. In crypto, they often signal accumulation. As paper losses age, the likelihood of those coins being sold at a loss diminishes. This isn't a portfolio bleeding out—it's a foundation being poured. It's the market quietly building a floor, one stubborn holder at a time, while Wall Street still debates if it's a 'real asset' (their loss, literally).

The Coming Supply Shock

With 43% of the underwater supply now effectively locked in cold storage, available sell-side pressure dwindles. This sets the stage for a violent move upward when demand returns. Forget day traders—the real market movers are the ones who haven't moved a coin in years.

The narrative is flipping from 'who's selling' to 'who's left to sell?' When the tide turns, these aged, unrealized losses will transform into the most patient of profits. The clock is ticking for anyone waiting for a fire sale.

23.7% Of Bitcoin Supply Is Currently Being Held At A Loss

In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the latest trend in the bitcoin Total Supply in Loss. This metric measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of the cryptocurrency’s supply that’s currently carrying a net unrealized loss.

The indicator works by going through the transaction history of each token in circulation to see what price it was last moved at. If this previous transaction price was lower than the latest spot price for any token, then that particular coin is assumed to be underwater right now.

The Total Supply in Loss adds up all coins of this type to produce a net situation for the network. A counterpart metric called the Total Supply in Profit accounts for the tokens of the opposite type.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Total Supply in Loss over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss witnessed a sharp surge as the asset’s price crashed in November. Since then, the metric has stayed inside the 6 to 7 million BTC range, with its current value being 6.7 million BTC. This phase corresponds to the highest degree of loss on the network since 2023.

Glassnode explained:

Persisting within the 6–7 million BTC range since mid-November, this pattern closely mirrors early transitional phases of prior cycles, where mounting investor frustration preceded a shift toward more pronounced bearish conditions and intensified capitulation at lower prices.

The report has also shed light on how this loss supply is distributed between the two main divisions of the Bitcoin investors based on holding time: short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs). The cutoff between the two groups is 155 days, with investors who purchased inside this window falling in the STHs and those with a longer holding time in LTHs.

As the below chart shows, the Bitcoin loss supply spike last month was initially dominated by STHs.

With the cryptocurrency ranging low since then, the distribution of the loss supply has seen a shift between the two cohorts: LTHs have gained some notable share.

Of the 23.7% Bitcoin supply in circulation that’s underwater right now, 13.5% is held by STHs and 10.2% by LTHs. “This distribution suggests that, much like in prior cycle transitions into deeper bearish regimes, loss-bearing supply accumulated by recent buyers is gradually maturing into the long-term holder cohort,” noted the analytics firm.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $85,400, down more than 5.5% over the last week.