Where Are the Bitcoin Sellers? Record-Low Inflows Signal Unshakeable Holder Conviction in 2025’s Deepest Pullback

Bitcoin's deepest price correction of the year isn't scaring off the long-term crowd. A glaring absence of fresh supply hitting exchanges tells the real story—this isn't a panic, it's a standoff.

The Hold Line Holds Firm

Forget the daily chart noise. The critical metric flashing green isn't price, but flow—specifically, the lack of it. Exchange inflows, the precursor to selling pressure, have dried up to levels that scream holder conviction. While headlines fret over the pullback, the network's arteries show capital isn't fleeing; it's digging in.

Weak Hands Need Not Apply

This isn't 2022. The leverage-fueled, weak-handed crowd got washed out cycles ago. The asset's maturation means today's volatility is absorbed by entities with longer time horizons and colder blood. They've seen this movie before—the dip-buying script is well-rehearsed, even if Wall Street analysts, busy adjusting their six-month price targets for the third time this quarter, haven't read it.

The Real Signal in the Silence

When prices fall but coins don't move, listen to the silence. It's the sound of a market transitioning from speculative trading to strategic holding. The low inflows amid significant price stress suggest the 'digital gold' narrative isn't just marketing fluff for a portion of the base—it's an operational blueprint. They're not trading an asset; they're guarding a position.

The takeaway? The deepest pullback of 2025 is being met not with capitulation, but with a collective shrug from the core constituency. In a world obsessed with hyper-active trading, sometimes the most powerful move is to do absolutely nothing.

A Shift in Inflows Reveals Unusual Investor Behavior

Darkfost notes that today’s data shows a markedly different behavior from what bitcoin typically displays during major corrections. Instead of focusing on BTC alone, the analysis aggregates total inflows of all cryptocurrencies sent to Binance, offering a broader view of market intent. The logic behind this metric is straightforward: rising inflows signal growing selling pressure, while shrinking inflows indicate that investors prefer to hold rather than exit their positions.

During previous downturns, inflows surged. In April 2024, right after Bitcoin hit a new all-time high at $73,800, total inflows exceeded 200 million coins, reflecting intense selling pressure. A similar spike appeared in December 2024, as BTC broke above $100,000, signaling that investors were preparing to lock in profits.

Today’s environment looks nothing like those periods. Despite experiencing a much deeper correction, inflows are five times lower—and notably stable. Investors are not sending coins to exchanges, which means they’re not eager to sell. Instead, they are sitting through the decline, showing patience rather than panic.

This unusual calm suggests a more confident market structure. If selling pressure continues to fade, this investor restraint could become one of the most constructive signals supporting a future bullish recovery once the correction runs its course.

Bitcoin Price Action Shows Early Signs of Stabilization

Bitcoin’s latest 3-day chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after a sharp two-month correction that pushed the price from above $120,000 to the recent lows NEAR $84,000. The current rebound toward $91,960 reflects improving short-term sentiment, but the broader structure still leans bearish until key levels break.

One of the most important developments is BTC’s interaction with the 200-day moving average (red line). The price dipped below it during the flush-out but has now reclaimed it slightly, a signal that sellers may be losing momentum. Historically, regaining the 200MA on high timeframes marks the first stage of recovery after major corrections. However, confirmation requires follow-through and stronger volume—something that remains limited for now.

The 50MA and 100MA sit well above price, reflecting the depth of the recent decline and acting as overhead resistance. The clustering of these moving averages between $100,000 and $110,000 forms a heavy supply zone. Bulls WOULD need several consecutive strong candles to break back into that region.

Volume has decreased notably during the rebound, suggesting that buyers are still cautious. Until BTC reclaims the $96K–$98K area—where structural resistance and realized-price bands align—this MOVE remains a relief bounce rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com