Solana’s September Surge: What to Expect From the High-Speed Blockchain This Month

Solana braces for pivotal month as network activity spikes and developer momentum accelerates.

Network Performance Under Microscope

All eyes remain on transaction speeds and outage resilience. The chain's blistering throughput claims face real-world stress tests as user adoption climbs. Every second of downtime now triggers amplified market reactions.

Ecosystem Expansion Accelerates

New DeFi protocols queue for launch, leveraging Solana's cost advantage over rivals. NFT mints continue migrating from Ethereum, chasing lower fees and faster settlements. Developer activity suggests sustained growth—if the infrastructure holds.

Market Positioning Challenges

Competition intensifies as other Layer 1s enhance scalability. Solana's valuation hinges on maintaining technical superiority while avoiding the network hiccups that make traders nervous. Institutional adoption whispers grow louder, though traditional finance still views most crypto as speculative gambling with better marketing.

September could cement Solana's dominance—or expose lingering vulnerabilities. The chain either races ahead or faces renewed skepticism. No middle ground.

Supply in Profit Near Six-Month High

One of the most important metrics is the percentage of supply in profit, which measures how many coins are currently worth more than their cost basis.

This metric hit a six-month high of 96.56% on August 28 before easing slightly to around 90% now.

History shows that such highs often precede corrections in the Solana price. On July 13, the metric touched 96% while the Solana price traded around $205, followed by a 23% drop to $158.

Again, on August 13, the metric peaked at 94.31%, triggering a 12% correction from $201 to $176. Later, on August 23, another peak at 95.13% led to an 8% slide from $204 to $187.

With the metric back near record highs, the risk of a deeper correction in the SOL price in September is increasing.

Exchange Balances Reinforce Selling Risk

That selling risk is reinforced by exchange balances. The amount of SOL held on centralized exchanges surged to more than 32 million tokens on August 28, up from under 30 million earlier in the month. Rising balances usually suggest holders are preparing to sell.

The correlation is clear. On August 14, when balances peaked above 32 million, the solana price dropped 8% from $192 to $176 within days.

Now, with balances climbing again, a similar setup is forming, pointing to renewed downside pressure that could weigh on the SOL price in September.

Solana Price Pattern Suggests Bearish Setup Despite Positive History

Technicals also align with this bearish outlook. solana is moving inside an ascending wedge on the weekly chart — a pattern that often signals weakening momentum and can lead to either a bearish continuation or reversal.

If the Solana price loses $195 and $182, the decline could extend to $160, marking another potential 15–20% pullback. Interestingly, such pullbacks were previously seen when exchange balances and supply in profit percentages spiked. A breach under $182 would even validate the bearish pattern breakdown.

However, bulls still have a way to regain strength. A weekly close above $217 — the last local high — WOULD invalidate the wedge’s bearish implication and open the way toward higher targets. Until then, the bias remains tilted downward.

This bearish technical setup comes against a backdrop of generally positive seasonality. Since 2021, Solana has delivered September gains of 29%, 5.3%, 8.2%, and 12.5%. But with supply in profit at highs and exchange balances elevated, 2025 may be the year this streak breaks.

Unless SOL manages a decisive close above $217, the Solana price in September could struggle, even with the positive push of historical performance and ETF-related optimism.