🚀 Bitcoin to $4.81M by 2036? Bold New Forecast Sparks Frenzy

Hold onto your wallets—Bitcoin’s price might just moon harder than Wall Street’s ego.

### The $4.8 Million Question

A fresh prediction throws gasoline on the crypto fire: BTC could smash past $4.81 million before 2036. That’s not a typo—unless your hedge fund manager missed the memo (again).

### Math or Madness?

No crystal balls here—just cold, divisive math. Hyperbitcoinization models, adoption curves, and a dash of 'take that, fiat' energy fuel the hype. Skeptics scoff. Hodlers nod.

### The Fine Print

Remember when 'experts' said BTC would never break $100? Today’s pie-in-the-sky number could be tomorrow’s floor. Or another relic for crypto Twitter to meme into oblivion.

Either way—buckle up. The only thing more volatile than Bitcoin’s price? Your portfolio manager’s excuses.

Supply Shock Scenarios and Bitcoin Price

The updated results show afor April 2036. The, while the 95% upper bound ranges from $11.89 million to $14.76 million, depending on the simulation parameters. In the most extreme one percent of simulations, peaks approach $50 million. Median projections are about $6.55 million to $6.96 million for the same date.

Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap and an estimated liquid float of nearly 3 million BTC anchor the supply side. Long-term storage, corporate collateralization, DeFi activity, and LAYER 2 networks are expected to further reduce the tradable supply. Baseline and median scenarios keep liquid supply between 6.55 million and 6.96 million BTC by April 2036, moderating extreme projections.

Stress-path simulations illustrate how persistent exchange withdrawals could accelerate scarcity. If the circulating liquid supply drops below 2 million BTC with low contraction sensitivity, the model shows prices could escalate rapidly. In the worst one percent of depletion paths, liquid supply falls below 2 million BTC by Jan. 19, 2026, and below 1 million BTC by Dec. 7, 2027.

The updated model projects significantly higher prices than January’s report, which used more conservative adoption and liquidity assumptions. The researchers attribute this to sharper post-2026 supply–demand imbalances and structural constraints that limit available supply. The model incorporates institutional accumulation patterns, slowing purchases during rallies and increasing them during stable conditions.

The study notes that investor awareness of liquidity risk will be essential as adoption grows. It emphasizes that there is a narrow margin between sustainable scarcity and destabilizing depletion, with the latter potentially causing outsized volatility.

Portfolio Strategy Implications

The findings have implications for portfolio strategy and policy. For long-term allocators, the steep right tail of the price distribution supports strategies that account for asymmetric upside while respecting liquidity constraints. Policymakers may need to address custody concentration and cross-border capital flows as corporate treasuries, sovereign reserves, and tokenization initiatives increase pressure on circulating supply.

Combining macro-level adoption curves with micro-level liquidity events, the Monte Carlo framework and Epstein–Zin utility specification offer a more comprehensive view than simpler projection models. Multiple constraint factors are integrated to simulate how Bitcoin’s price could evolve under varying market and policy conditions.

As reported by BeInCrypto, Bitcoin entered uncharted territory on Thursday, breaking above $124,000 to set a new all-time high. The price is up nearly 8% over the past week. Analysts point to a confluence of bullish on-chain signals suggesting that the rally may still have room to run.