Solana’s Comeback: 3 Make-or-Break Metrics That Could Spark a Short-Term Rally
Solana's price is at a crossroads—and these three metrics hold the keys to its recovery. One could even kickstart a surprise rally.
First up: Network activity. Are developers still building, or is Solana becoming a ghost chain? Daily active addresses and transaction volume don't lie.
Second: Exchange flows. Whale movements and staking patterns reveal whether big money's betting on a rebound—or bailing out.
Third (and most explosive): Futures open interest. A sudden spike here could trigger a violent short squeeze—Wall Street's favorite 'fake rally' catalyst.
Bottom line: Solana's fundamentals need to back up the hype. Because as any crypto vet knows, hope isn't an investment strategy—no matter what your 'alpha' Discord says.
Exchange Selling Pressure Drops 10%, Signaling Less Dump Risk
The first key shift comes from Solana’s balance on exchanges, which has dropped sharply from 33.06 million on July 23 to 30.78 million SOL on August 5; a fall of nearly 10%. This means fewer tokens are sitting on centralized exchanges, a classic sign of reduced selling pressure.
More importantly, a bullish crossover has occurred on the same chart: Solana’s price has once again moved above the exchange supply trendline.
Historically, when this happens, short-term rallies often follow. For instance, on July 16, when Solana’s price crossed above this supply line, SOL jumped from $173 to $205 in six days. A similar MOVE happened on July 24, where the price rose from $182 to $188 in just three sessions. The same crossover occurred at $169, and although the price has since corrected, the pattern remains worth watching.
Institutional Futures Hold Steady While Price Slides
The second signal of strength comes from institutional derivatives. Solana’s CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures open interest has remained steady despite the spot price falling, forming a bullish divergence of sorts.
For example, on August 1, CME open interest held at 3.07 million while SOL’s price fell from $162 to $158; but then it quickly bounced back to $169 once that divergence narrowed.
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen this play out. A similar pattern happened between July 25 and 27, when CME open interest remained flat and price dropped, only for Solana to bounce from $184 to $188 once sentiment stabilized.
Why does CME matter? Because it’s where institutional players trade. A steady futures open interest while the price declines often hints that long-term buyers are holding their ground, waiting for weaker hands to exit before jumping in again.
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Solana Price Daily Chart Flashes Potential Golden Crossover Setup
Finally, the most trader-focused signal is happening on the daily Solana price chart. The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) or the sky blue line is inching closer to crossing above the 200-day EMA (deep blue line); a setup commonly known as a golden crossover. If confirmed, this pattern usually signals the start of a stronger upward trend.
Even a rally at times!
Currently, SOL is hovering above the $160 support. If that level holds and Solana manages to reclaim $176 (a 10% push from current levels), the short-term trend could flip bullish.
A move beyond $188 WOULD put $200 back on the table, while a break below $155 would risk further downside. The full invalidation comes only if SOL drops under $142. That might happen if the two EMA lines, closing in on each other, flip the other way. That means instead of the golden cross, a bearish or “Death crossover” happens with the 200-day EMA line crosses above the 100-day line.
