Bitcoin Market Fatigue Intensifies: Is a Crash Below $100,000 Imminent in 2025?
Bitcoin's bull run hits a wall as traders yawn through sideways action. The king of crypto struggles to find momentum, leaving investors wondering if six-figure support will hold.
Signs of exhaustion mount
Trading volumes slump to yearly lows while open interest flatlines. Even the usual 'buy the dip' crowd appears to be sitting this one out—perhaps too busy counting their unrealized gains from last quarter.
The $100,000 question
With institutional money suddenly playing hard-to-get and retail traders distracted by the latest memecoin casino, BTC's price floor looks shakier than a leveraged long during a Fed meeting. Will this be the first meaningful correction of the 2024-2025 cycle?
Market veterans shrug
'This is crypto—we've seen this movie before,' quips one hedge fund manager between sips of his $28 artisanal cold brew. Meanwhile, traditional finance pundits gleefully dust off their 'told you so' tweets from 2021.
The bottom line? Bitcoin doesn't care about your feelings. And Wall Street still doesn't understand it—but they'll keep charging 2% to pretend they do.
Bitcoin Profit Taking Slows Down
In the previous market cycle (2020–2022), Bitcoin investors realized a total of approximately $550 billion in profit during multiple rallies, including two major waves. Fast forward to the current cycle, and realized profits have already exceeded $650 billion, surpassing the previous cycle’s total. This indicates that, while large gains have been made, the market may be entering a cooling phase.
The latest data suggests that profit-taking has peaked, with the market now in a cool-down period after the third major wave of profit realization. Although gains have been secured, the momentum driving Bitcoin’s upward movement appears to be waning. As realized profitability tapers off, investor sentiment shifts, leading to reduced buying pressure.
Bitcoin’s total transfer volume has also shown signs of cooling. The 7-day moving average of on-chain transfer volume has dropped by approximately 32%, falling from a peak of $76 billion in late May to $52 billion over the past weekend. This decline is consistent with the broader pattern of market cooling, signaling that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum may be losing steam.
The slowdown in transfer volume reflects a general loss of activity across key bitcoin metrics, reinforcing the notion that market participants are taking a cautious approach. As the market eases, Bitcoin’s price could face downward pressure.
BTC Price Needs To Secure Support
Bitcoin’s price is currently at $106,907, just below the $108,000 resistance. For BTC to continue its upward trend, it must flip $108,000 into support. This WOULD set the stage for further gains, pushing Bitcoin towards the $110,000 mark and potentially beyond. However, the current market sentiment remains fragile.
Given the rising signs of market fatigue and the cooling of key activity metrics, a decline is more likely in the NEAR term. If demand does not revive, Bitcoin’s price could fall below $105,000 and test the critical $100,000 support level. Any further loss in momentum may trigger a deeper decline.
Alternatively, if Bitcoin’s price manages to hold above key support levels, the bullish trend remains intact. Successfully reclaiming $108,000 as support would clear the path for Bitcoin to rise to $110,000. A break above this level could lead to a MOVE towards the all-time high of $111,980, maintaining the upward momentum and investor optimism.
