AMD Stock: Intel’s Weakness Fuels a 2026 Rally – What’s Next?

• Why Is AMD Stock Soaring in Early 2026?
• Intel’s Supply Crunch: A Golden Window for AMD
• AMD’s 2025 Streak: By the Numbers
• What to Watch in AMD’s Upcoming Earnings
• FAQ: Your AMD-Intel Questions Answered

AMD shares surged over 3.5% on Friday, nearing their 52-week high as Intel’s disappointing Q1 2026 outlook created a tailwind for its rival. With Intel facing supply constraints and AMD riding strong demand for AI chips, analysts see a clear opportunity for AMD to capture market share. Here’s a deep dive into the numbers, strategic moves, and what investors should watch next.

Why Is AMD Stock Soaring in Early 2026?

AMD’s stock jumped over 3.5% on Friday, January 21, 2026, closing in on its 52-week high. The catalyst? Intel’s grim Q1 forecast. While Intel beat Q4 2025 revenue expectations by $300 million (reporting $13.7B), its guidance for Q1 2026 spooked investors: revenue of $11.7B–$12.7B (below consensus by $310M) and adjusted EPS of $0 (versus expectations of $0.05). Intel’s stock plummeted 15% post-announcement, while AMD caught a bid. "Intel’s pain is AMD’s gain," noted BTCC analyst Mark Jensen. "Supply shortages at one player often mean pricing power for the other."

Intel’s Supply Crunch: A Golden Window for AMD

Intel CFO David Zinsner warned that Q1 2026 supply capacity WOULD hit "the lowest level" before recovering in Q2. The company’s buffer stocks are depleted, and its transition to server-chip wafer production (initiated in Q3 2025) won’t stabilize until late Q1 2026. For AMD, this spells opportunity. Demand for AI chips and data center processors remains robust, and with Intel constrained, AMD could snag volume and pricing advantages. Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon raised AMD’s price target to $225, citing "unmatched momentum in AI inference."

AMD’s 2025 Streak: By the Numbers

AMD outperformed Nvidia in 2025, with shares rising 77% (vs. NVIDIA’s 39%). Key drivers:

• Data Center Revenue: $4.3B in Q3 2025, up 22% YoY.
• Strategic Wins: Multi-year OpenAI partnership; MI400 AI inference chips unveiled at CES 2026.
• Q4 2025 Estimates: EPS of $1.32 (+21.1% YoY), revenue of $9.65B (per TradingView data).

What to Watch in AMD’s Upcoming Earnings

AMD reports Q4 2025 results on February 3, 2026. Analysts have nudged EPS estimates up 0.76% over the past 60 days. Intel’s supply issues are expected to linger through March, giving AMD room to flex in data centers and client markets. "The stars are aligning," quipped a trader on Reddit’s WallStreetBets. But is it time to buy? Let’s break it down.

FAQ: Your AMD-Intel Questions Answered

How long will Intel’s supply issues last?

Intel expects constraints through Q1 2026, with relief by Q2.

Is AMD a better AI play than NVIDIA now?

AMD’s MI400 series and OpenAI deal position it well, but NVIDIA still leads in raw AI market share.

What’s AMD’s fair value post-Q4 earnings?

Bernstein’s $225 target suggests ~12% upside from current levels.