Ibovespa Rides Wall Street Rally, Nears 165K Points and Hits All-Time High in December 2025
- Why Did the Ibovespa Reach a New Record?
- How Are Brazilian Stocks Reacting?
- What’s Next for Brazil’s Interest Rates?
- Dollar’s Divergent Path
- Expert Take: BTCC’s Market Insight
- FAQs: Your Ibovespa Questions Answered
The Ibovespa (IBOV) surged to a historic high of 165,035.97 points on December 5, 2025, fueled by Optimism around potential U.S. interest rate cuts and stronger commodity prices. Key drivers included Braskem’s rebound (+5.88%), Vale’s bullish production forecasts, and Petrobras’ oil-linked gains. Meanwhile, the dollar showed mixed trends against the real amid Brazil’s looming monetary policy shift. Here’s the full breakdown of the market’s record-breaking day.
Why Did the Ibovespa Reach a New Record?
The Ibovespa climbed 0.35% to 165,035.97 points by 12:40 PM Brasília time, eclipsing yesterday’s intraday peak of 164,550.77. The rally mirrored Wall Street’s momentum after the U.S. PCE inflation data for September showed a 0.3% monthly rise (slightly above expectations), keeping annual inflation at 2.8%—still above the Fed’s 2% target. Core PCE (excluding food/energy) edged up 0.2% monthly. Markets now price an 87.2% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut next week, per CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
How Are Brazilian Stocks Reacting?
-: Soared 5.88% to R$8.28 amid rumors of Novonor’s stake sale, despite the company denying negotiations. -: Extended its six-day winning streak after revising 2026 iron ore output guidance to 335M–345M tons; BB Investimentos raised its target price to R$75. -: Gained 1%+, tracking Brent crude’s rise.-: Dropped 4.95% after Canada’s CPPIB sold 10M shares (~5% stake) via a Bank of America-coordinated block trade worth R$270M.
What’s Next for Brazil’s Interest Rates?
With Q3 2025 GDP growth at a meager 0.1% (below Reuters’ 0.2% forecast), traders bet on imminent Selic rate cuts. B3’s Copom Options contract implies a 61% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in January, rising to 83.5% by March. The Central Bank is expected to hold rates at 15% next week.
Dollar’s Divergent Path
While the DXY index held steady at 98.973 against major currencies, the USD/BRL jumped 1.26% to R$5.3771—a disconnect attributed to Brazil’s fiscal uncertainties overshadowing monetary easing hopes.
Expert Take: BTCC’s Market Insight
“The Ibovespa’s rally reflects global liquidity expectations, but local risks linger,” noted a BTCC analyst. “Commodity stocks like Vale benefit from China’s demand, while Braskem’s volatility underscores M&A speculation risks.”
FAQs: Your Ibovespa Questions Answered
What drove the Ibovespa’s record high?
The index was lifted by U.S. rate-cut bets, strong commodity prices, and domestic optimism around Brazil’s easing cycle.
Will the Fed’s decision impact Brazilian markets?
Yes. A Fed cut could weaken the USD/BRL further, but fiscal concerns may cap gains.
Is Braskem’s surge sustainable?
Unlikely without concrete M&A progress. Today’s bounce follows yesterday’s denial of sale talks.
