Bitcoin Drops Despite End of U.S. Government Shutdown – Market Sentiment Hits 8-Month Low
- Why Is Bitcoin Still Falling After the Shutdown Resolution?
- ETF Outflows and Macro Uncertainty: A Double Whammy
- Fed Rate Cut Odds Dim—How It Impacts Crypto
- Hidden Bullish Signals: Wedges, Divergences, and "Crowd FUD"
- FAQ: Your Bitcoin Market Questions Answered
Bitcoin’s price slump continues even as the U.S. government shutdown concludes, with crypto sentiment plunging to an 8-month low. Analysts remain divided—some see exhaustion in sellers, while others warn of further downside. Key metrics like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit "extreme fear," and ETF outflows add pressure. But hidden bullish signals, like positive divergences and institutional inflows, suggest a potential reversal. Here’s the full breakdown.
Why Is Bitcoin Still Falling After the Shutdown Resolution?
Bitcoin dipped below $95,000 last Friday, defying expectations that the end of the historic 43-day U.S. government shutdown WOULD boost risk assets. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index nosedived to 10—its lowest since February 27—signaling "extreme fear" among traders. "Sellers are exhausted, and it shows," noted André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, pointing to a rare positive divergence in sentiment metrics despite the price drop. As of November 14, 2025, BTC trades at $95,778, down 1.5% in 24 hours and 6.3% weekly. (Source:)
ETF Outflows and Macro Uncertainty: A Double Whammy
Spot bitcoin ETFs bled $1.14 billion in a single day last week—the worst outflow on record—triggering a cascade from $102,000 to $84,000 earlier this month. Dave Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research declared BTC "officially in a bear market" after a 20% monthly plunge. But Santiment data reveals a twist: social media chatter suggests "the worst is over," a contrarian signal often preceding rebounds. Meanwhile, spot ETFs saw $1.17 billion in inflows over three days, a potential bullish counterpoint. (Source:)
Fed Rate Cut Odds Dim—How It Impacts Crypto
With the shutdown resolved, traders anticipated Fed dovishness, but Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid just echoed peers doubting December rate cuts. CME FedWatch now prices a 44.4% chance—down from 60% pre-shutdown. "Bitcoin hasn’t become the hedge everyone hoped," admitted Juan Pérez of Monex USA, noting its correlation with equities during turmoil. The BTCC research team adds: "Macro uncertainty is delaying institutional bets, but long-term holders are accumulating."
Hidden Bullish Signals: Wedges, Divergences, and "Crowd FUD"
Chartists spot a falling wedge in BTC’s price pattern—a classic reversal setup. NorthmanTrader’s Sven Henrich flagged this alongside Santiment’s findings: "True bottoms FORM when most expect further drops." Interestingly, Bitcoin’s social dominance topped 40% as negativity peaked—a sign retail panic often marks local lows. "In my 8 years covering crypto, I’ve never seen such disconnect between headlines and on-chain behavior," shared a Messari analyst.
FAQ: Your Bitcoin Market Questions Answered
Why did Bitcoin fall despite the U.S. shutdown ending?
Macro risks like delayed Fed rate cuts and spot ETF outflows ($866 million net exits Thursday) overshadowed the shutdown resolution. Sentiment drives crypto more than isolated political events.
Is the "extreme fear" reading a buy signal?
Historically, yes—but timing matters. The BTCC team advises dollar-cost averaging during fear phases, as violent rallies often follow sentiment extremes.
Are institutions still buying Bitcoin?
Yes, but selectively. Recent ETF inflows ($1.17 billion in 3 days) suggest smart money accumulation, though short-term traders dominate price action.
