Bitcoin in 2025: Low Profit-Taking Signals Extended Bull Run Ahead

Why Is Low Profit-Taking Significant for Bitcoin?

In my experience, low profit-taking is one of the strongest indicators of a sustained bullish trend. When investors hold onto their bitcoin instead of cashing out, it signals long-term confidence in the asset. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that realized profits in Q3 2025 are at their lowest since the 2021 bull run—suggesting holders are waiting for even higher prices.

How Have Bitcoin ETFs Impacted the Market?

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year was a game-changer. Suddenly, institutional money flowed in, and retail investors gained easier access. TradingView charts reveal that ETF inflows have consistently outpaced outflows since February 2024, creating a supply squeeze. As one BTCC analyst put it, "ETFs aren’t just a gateway—they’re a pressure cooker for demand."

What Historical Patterns Support This Thesis?

Let’s take a quick trip down memory lane. The 2016-2017 cycle saw similar low profit-taking before Bitcoin skyrocketed to $20K. Fast forward to 2025, and the parallels are striking. Glassnode data shows the percentage of circulating supply last moved (>1 year) is nearing all-time highs—just like in early 2017. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.

Are There Any Risks to This Optimistic Outlook?

Of course, no market moves in a straight line. The BTCC research team cautions that macroeconomic factors like interest rate decisions could trigger short-term volatility. That said, the overall on-chain metrics (hello, NUPL and MVRV ratios) remain firmly in the "optimism" zone. This article does not constitute investment advice.

How Are Retail and Institutional Investors Behaving Differently?

Here’s where it gets fascinating. While institutions are accumulating through ETFs, retail traders on exchanges like BTCC are showing unusual restraint. The last time we saw this divergence? Yep, right before the 2020 halving rally. It’s almost like watching two chess players—one moving slowly, the other with sudden bursts.

What Do On-Chain Metrics Reveal About Holder Sentiment?

Digging into the blockchain data reveals a telling story. The average coin age keeps climbing, meaning fewer coins are being spent. Meanwhile, exchange reserves are at multi-year lows—another bullish signal. As one veteran trader joked, "HODLers have turned into statues."

Could This Lead to a Supply Shock?

Simple math suggests yes. With ETFs buying thousands of BTC daily and miners’ rewards halved, available supply is shrinking fast. If demand maintains its current pace, we might see what analysts call a "buyers’ panic" phase. Remember when Bitcoin hit $100K? Oh wait, that hasn’t happened yet—but the ingredients are there.

How Does This Compare to Traditional Markets?

Interestingly, while the S&P 500 struggles with valuation concerns, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals keep improving. The hash rate hit another ATH last week, and developer activity is booming. It’s like comparing a sprinter to a marathon runner—both impressive, but playing different games.

What Should Investors Watch in Coming Months?

Keep an eye on these three things: 1) ETF Flow trends, 2) miner selling pressure, and 3) that pesky 200-day moving average. As for me? I’ll be watching the derivatives market for signs of overheating. Nothing like some good old-fashioned leverage to spice things up.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why isn’t profit-taking occurring despite Bitcoin’s price increase?

Most holders appear to be anticipating even higher prices, especially with the ETF-driven institutional demand creating scarcity.

How reliable are these historical comparisons?

While past performance never guarantees future results, Bitcoin’s cyclical nature has shown remarkable consistency across market cycles.

What’s the biggest threat to this bullish scenario?

Black swan events like regulatory crackdowns or macroeconomic shocks could disrupt the trend, though current indicators remain positive.