Itaú BBA Predicts Vivara (VIVA3) as a Top Performer in 3Q25, Foresees 30%+ Stock Surge by 2026
- Why Is Vivara's Stock Projected to Jump 32.9%?
- How Is Vivara Outperforming in a Tough Retail Environment?
- What's Next for Vivara's Expansion Strategy?
- Is Gold Price Volatility a Threat?
- Vivara (VIVA3) Investment Outlook: Your Questions Answered
Vivara (VIVA3) has been on a tear, skyrocketing over 45% since January 2025. But according to Itaú BBA's latest analysis, the jewelry retailer's stock still has another 32.9% upside potential by end-2026. With strategic inventory optimization and its fast-growing Life brand, Vivara appears poised to deliver strong earnings growth despite Gold price volatility. Here's why analysts remain bullish.
Why Is Vivara's Stock Projected to Jump 32.9%?
Closing at R$27.08 last Friday (October 10, 2025), Vivara's shares could reach Itaú BBA's R$36 price target through a combination of margin expansion and improved capital efficiency. "Even after the recent rally, we see room for further upside as earnings estimates get revised upward," notes BTCC analyst Rodrigo Gastim. The key driver? Vivara's ability to sustain performance while boosting cash generation - particularly through optimizing its return on invested capital (ROIC).
What's particularly impressive is how Vivara's management has handled inventory challenges. They've aggressively culled slow-moving SKUs (products unsold for 180+ days) without hurting revenue growth - no easy feat in retail. "Their two-pronged approach of melting/reusing low-turnover pieces and redistributing inventory across stores is paying dividends," Gastim observes. This operational excellence should normalize inventory days by late 2026.
How Is Vivara Outperforming in a Tough Retail Environment?
While many retailers struggle with single-digit growth, Vivara posted 15% revenue increases despite gold prices doubling since early 2024. The secret sauce? A "well-balanced" combination of:
- Net revenue growth
- Gross margin expansion
- EBITDA improvement
Their Life brand (silver jewelry line) continues to be a growth engine. "By internalizing production of more complex pieces and accelerating collection launches, Vivara's achieving significant same-store sales bumps," explains Gastim. Pilot programs already show promising results.
What's Next for Vivara's Expansion Strategy?
As cash Flow strengthens from inventory normalization, Vivara plans to:
- Resume store expansion focused on malls
- Test select street formats
- Boost production capacity for higher-value Life collections
"These more complex pieces take longer to make but dramatically improve value-add," Gastim notes. The operational shift should further elevate gross margins.
Is Gold Price Volatility a Threat?
With gold hitting record highs above $4,000/troy ounce, Vivara did experience some volume pressure. However, their strategic decision to pause new gold purchases (relying instead on recycled inventory) has cushioned the impact. "Most price adjustments are behind them," the report concludes, suggesting limited future margin pressure.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Gold price data sourced from TradingView as of October 12, 2025.
Vivara (VIVA3) Investment Outlook: Your Questions Answered
What is Itaú BBA's price target for VIVA3?
Itaú BBA maintains a R$36 price target for Vivara shares, representing 32.9% upside from October 10, 2025's closing price of R$27.08.
How has Vivara performed year-to-date?
VIVA3 has surged over 45% since January 2025, significantly outperforming Brazil's retail sector average.
What are Vivara's key growth drivers?
The company is leveraging: 1) Inventory optimization 2) Life brand expansion 3) Operational efficiencies to boost ROIC and margins.
