Bitcoin in 2025: Why BTC’s Volatility Doesn’t Mean It’s a Bubble

Bitcoin's price swings have traders sweating—again. But here's why the king of crypto isn't repeating its 2021 bubble antics.

The institutional armor

Wall Street's ETF embrace and corporate treasuries stacking BTC like digital gold changed the game. Volatility? Yes. Bubble? Not when BlackRock's playing.

Liquidity vs. leverage

Remember the 80% crashes? Today's dips barely crack 30%—thanks to $100B+ daily volumes swallowing panic sells. (Unlike certain meme stocks *cough* GameStop *cough* still waiting for their 'fundamental value').

The halving effect

Miners now hoard instead of dump. With 90% of BTC already mined, that 2024 supply cut's squeezing exchanges drier than a banker's empathy.

So no, Bitcoin isn't dying—it's just keeping crypto Twitter's cardiologists employed. The real bubble? Believing fiat currencies will outlive their 50-year average lifespan.

Key takeaways

Bitcoin is rising steadily without signs of a speculative bubble, staying above its long-term trend. Most selling is coming from short-term holders. Market indicators show a cautious but stable outlook.

Bitcoin [BTC] is growing steadily, without the wild price spikes we’ve seen in past bull runs. It’s staying above its long-term growth trend, but not in a bubble.

Most of the recent selling has come from short-term traders, not long-time holders, which means newer investors are driving the ups and downs.

Meanwhile, the broader market seems to be settling into a more mature phase.

BTC grows in line with Power Law theory, avoids bubble territory

A recent report by Arab Chain on CryptoQuant highlighted how Bitcoin is closely tracking its long-term growth pattern based on the Power Law theory.

This model suggests that Bitcoin’s price increases over time in a logarithmic, predictable way – forming a steady upward curve rather than spiking irrationally.

Source: Cryptoquant Quicktake

The Power Law divergence indicator measures how far the current price is from this expected trajectory.

When comparing past bitcoin cycles to the current one, it’s evident that the price has not yet entered bubble territory and may still have room to grow. 

According to the latest reading, Bitcoin is positioned above its long-term trendline but still well below the overheated “top watch” zone(red).

This shows disciplined, organic growth and leaves room for further upside.

STHs are driving market volatility

On-chain data from Glassnode showed that 85.5% of Bitcoin’s spent volume over the last 24 hours came from STHs, amounting to $18.24 billion.

In contrast, LTHs only accounted for $3.10 billion, or 14.5% of total spent volume.

Source: Glassnode

This imbalance indicates that the current wave of selling is being led by recent entrants, not long-standing believers. So long-term conviction in Bitcoin remains intact.

Stable, but indicators show mixed signals

At press time, Bitcoin hovered around $113,545 after a brief pullback from recent highs NEAR $118K.

The daily RSI dropped to 42.91, showing weakening bullish momentum but not yet entering oversold territory. The OBV also trended downward, reflecting a reduction in buying pressure over the past week.

Source: TradingView

While the price managed a slight uptick during the latest daily session, market momentum remains cautious.

The overall pattern suggests that Bitcoin was cooling off from its recent rally, but not breaking down; in line with the narrative of a disciplined, maturing market.