NEAR Protocol: 72% of Traders Bet on a Rally—But These 2 Red Flags Say Otherwise

NEAR's bullish momentum has traders piling in—but not all signals point up.

Warning Signs Flash Amid the Optimism

While 72% of positions lean long, on-chain metrics hint at overheated speculation. Whale activity and funding rates scream caution—just as retail FOMO kicks in.

The Contrarian Playbook

Smart money isn’t following the crowd. Instead, it’s hedging against a potential pullback. Classic crypto: the herd charges in just as the exit doors narrow.

One cynical take? The ‘greater fool theory’ is alive and well—until it isn’t.

Source: TradingView

Traders pile in, but is it too much, too soon??

On the 4th of July, trader positioning on Binance revealed an increasingly lopsided sentiment. Long accounts dominated at 72.19%, pushing the Long/Short Ratio to 2.60. 

This reflects aggressive bullish speculation that NEAR will soon break above the descending resistance. 

However, when Optimism becomes crowded, it often leads to liquidity risk. If the price fails to break out, this overleveraged structure could cascade into forced exits. 

Source: CoinGlass

Optimism returns, but will it sustain?

Weighted Sentiment, according to Santiment, climbed to +0.427 after days in negative territory. This rebound shows that trader confidence has returned—at least temporarily.

Historically, sustained positive sentiment has supported upside moves, but short-lived spikes often lead to reversals. 

Thus, sentiment must stay elevated to sustain momentum. If it dips again while the price remains flat, it may confirm a local top. 

Source: Santiment

Does THIS confirm conviction or signal overheating?

On the 4th of July, Funding Rates on Binance flipped to +0.01%, meaning longs were paying shorts. This supports bullish momentum, but the size matters.

The rate is still modest, suggesting healthy positioning rather than excessive speculation. However, funding may rise further if longs continue to pile in without a breakout, risking a squeeze. 

Therefore, this data currently supports cautious optimism—but traders should watch for rapid spikes that may foreshadow exhaustion.

Source: Santiment

Why are $2.22M in outflows a key signal for NEAR bulls?

NEAR saw a net outflow of $2.22 million from exchanges on the 4th of July, signaling that investors are withdrawing tokens from centralized platforms. 

That’s often interpreted as holding behavior rather than intent to sell.

If this trend persists, it reduces near-term sell pressure and builds a stronger base for breakout attempts. However, Exchange Inflows returning sharply WOULD weaken that case.

Source: CoinGlass

Are long liquidations a warning sign for overconfidence?

Despite rising optimism, liquidation data shows that long positions suffered losses of $269.99K on the 4th of July, compared to just $6.19K in short liquidations. 

This imbalance suggested that bulls may have jumped in too early, only to be caught in a local pullback. 

While not catastrophic, this liquidation event highlights fragility in the current uptrend. If similar imbalances occur again, it may erode confidence and delay breakout attempts.

Source: CoinGlass

Can NEAR bulls flip resistance into support?

NEAR’s bullish reversal setup was backed by strong sentiment and aggressive long positioning. However, elevated liquidations and unconfirmed breakouts signal caution. 

A breakout above the descending trendline with continued spot outflows and stable funding would strengthen the bullish case. Until then, the market remains in a critical decision zone.