Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Moment: The Bullish Breakout Setup That Could Redefine Crypto in 2025

Bitcoin teeters on the edge of a historic breakout—and this time, Wall Street can’t ignore it.

### The Setup: A Chart That Screams ‘Opportunity’

After months of consolidation, BTC’s price action is coiling like a spring. The symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart? Tighter than a hedge fund’s purse strings. A decisive close above resistance could trigger a cascade of FOMO buys.

### Why This Time Is Different

Institutional inflows are creeping up, ETFs are sucking up supply, and the halving dust has settled. Even the usual ‘sell the news’ crowd is hesitating. Meanwhile, retail traders are still sidelined—classic contrarian fuel.

### The Cynic’s Corner

Sure, bankers will claim they ‘always believed in crypto’—right after they finish shorting it. But the charts don’t lie: when Bitcoin breaks, it breaks hard. Miss this, and you’ll be buying back in at ATHs like a tourist paying Times Square NFT prices.

### The Bottom Line

Either Bitcoin confirms a macro uptrend here… or we’re in for another ‘crypto winter’ sob story. Place your bets.

Aggressive Bitcoin buying on Binance

Bitcoin’s Net Taker Volume on Binance spiked sharply above the $100 million threshold in the hours leading up to the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, as shown in the chart below.

Source: CryptoQuant

Net Taker Volume shows the difference between market buys and sells; so this surge means traders were aggressively placing buy orders, not waiting on dips.

The timing is key: the buildup happened just before the data release, suggesting speculative positioning tied to macro expectations.

The pronounced green bars and steep rise in BTC price show classic FOMO behavior, with traders chasing momentum ahead of a potentially market-moving catalyst.

According to Matt Mena, crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, risk-on sentiment was evident across broader markets.

He highlighted that S&P 500 Futures were close to all-time highs and that bitcoin appeared range-bound between $108,000 and $110,000, positioned for a potential breakout.

Mena stated,

“Perhaps most tellingly, Bitcoin dominance has dropped by 3% in recent days to 62% – a signal that the altcoin market is beginning to show signs of life.”

Jobs report for upside

On the 3rd of July, the U.S. labor market delivered a stronger-than-expected performance. Nonfarm Payrolls ROSE by 147,000, significantly above the consensus forecast of 110,000 to 118,000.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, its lowest level since February. 

These upbeat figures highlight the resilience of the U.S. economy and suggest that the Federal Reserve may hold off on easing monetary policy in the NEAR term.

Source: CryptoQuant Quicktake

As a result, traders quickly adjusted their rate expectations: Fed funds futures now show a 95% probability that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at its July meeting, up from 75% before the data release.

Mena noted that the combination of strong economic data, improving investor sentiment, and potential regulatory clarity could create ideal conditions for digital assets.

He added,

“For Bitcoin, that could mean a decisive breakout toward $200,000 and beyond,”

He also highlighted that altcoins could benefit even more as capital begins to rotate across the broader market.

Bitcoin bulls vs. a stronger dollar

Traders loaded up on Bitcoin before the jobs report, but the data now points to a tougher backdrop.

A strong labor market means the Fed is likely to keep interest rates high, which supports a stronger U.S. dollar.

That’s usually bad news for Bitcoin – historically, strong jobs numbers and fewer rate cuts have pressured crypto prices.

So while bullish bets are rising, the macro environment could work against them, creating a risky setup for traders. Mena concluded that a runway is forming, saying,

“With labor markets stable, inflation cooling, and liquidity on the horizon – both traditional and digital risk assets are responding accordingly.”