Bitcoin at $106K and Crypto Sentiment Still Unshaken—Here’s Why

Crypto bulls aren't blinking—even as Bitcoin hovers near $106K. Market psychology? Institutional FOMO? Or just pure defiance against traditional finance's 'told-you-so' smirks?

The $106K Stress Test

Most assets would buckle under profit-taking at these levels. Not Bitcoin. Retail stacks sats, whales accumulate, and ETFs keep swallowing supply—while Wall Street analysts nitpick 'valuation metrics' they'd never apply to meme stocks.

Narrative Armor

Macro tailwinds trump technicals. Inflation hedging, dollar debasement plays, and that sweet spot between 'store of value' and 'risk asset' keep sentiment bulletproof. Even regulators' bark lacks bite post-2024 election cycle.

The Cynic's Corner

Let's face it—half the optimism stems from watching goldbugs seethe as digital gold outperforms their shiny rock by 10x. The other half? Sheer schadenfreude toward banks still charging 0.01% APY on savings accounts.

Bottom line: Crypto winters taught hodlers patience. Now they're harvesting—and no round number sell-wall changes that.

Crypto sentiment remains optimistic

However, despite market fluctuations, overall sentiment remains relatively optimistic.

The crypto Fear & Greed Index registered a score of 63, still within the “Greed” zone, although slightly lower than the previous day.

Commenting on the same, NoOne’s CEO and long-time Bitcoin supporter, Ray Youssef, in an e-mail sent to AMBCrypto, highlighted that Bitcoin has just recorded its highest monthly close ever.

This is a strong indicator that its long-term bullish trend remains intact.

However, price movement tells a more restrained story, with BTC locked in a tight trading range between $106,000 and $108,700 for the past week.

Youssef noted, 

“This reveals how tightly bitcoin is still boxed into the “risk-on” corner of the global portfolio, while it should be playing its role as a macro hedge in its asset class.”

Historical trends

That being said, historically, Bitcoin has managed an average third-quarter gain of 5.47% since 2013, according to CoinGlass, suggesting a potential price of around $111,000 by the end of September if the trend holds.

However, analysts like Daan attribute Q3’s typically subdued performance to the slower pace of summer trading, with reduced volume and liquidity.

“As you can see from the historical data, this quarter is generally the slowest out of all, for both $BTC & $ETH.”

Still, key indicators suggest market sentiment remains skewed toward Bitcoin.

This is because its dominance sits at 65.5%, reflecting a strong lead over altcoins, while CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index currently reads just 20 out of 100, signaling a clear “Bitcoin Season.”

Yet, not all signals point to strength, as CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, put it best when he said, 

“Bitcoin Bull Score is in NEUTRAL territory now– 50. Needs to be 60 or above for prices to sustain a rally.” 

Where is Bitcoin heading?

Historically, July has been Bitcoin’s most resilient month, never recording a loss greater than 10%.

Yet, despite hovering just 5.5% below its all-time high, BTC has struggled to reclaim the $111K level for over 40 days.

This prolonged range-bound movement is raising concerns that what once appeared as healthy consolidation may be turning into a potential local top.

So, although historical patterns favor optimism, current data suggests investors may need to proceed with caution this July.