$164M SUI Token Unlock Sparks Panic: Will Prices Plummet or Is This a Buying Opportunity?

Hold onto your wallets—SUI's massive token unlock just dropped like a crypto anvil. The market's sweating over a potential fire sale, but smart money knows volatility breeds opportunity.

Tokenomics or toxicomics?

When $164 million worth of SUI hits circulation, two types of traders emerge: the paper-handed panic sellers and the diamond-handed accumulation chads. History says unlocks can be buy-the-dip moments—if you've got the stomach for it.

Meanwhile, Wall Street still can't tell a token unlock from a subway pass. Their loss.

$164.44 million worth of SUI set to unlock 

According to the token unlock details shared by CryptoRank, on the 1st of July, the SUI Network will unlock 58.35 million tokens worth $164.44 million.

This unlock represents 1.72% of SUI’s total market capitalization.

Source: X

Analysts and the market often view such large token unlocks with caution, as they can be a potential source of selling pressure and may trigger a short-term dip due to the increased token supply.

This bearish signal and potential price dip are further reinforced by the overall market uncertainty.

Impact on price

At the time of writing, SUI was trading NEAR $2.72 after a price dip of 1.75% in the past 24 hours. Amid this, investor and trader participation has also declined.

Data from CoinMarketCap revealed that SUI’s trading volume dropped by 10% compared to the previous day during this period.

This decline in trading volume suggests lower participant confidence and reduced interest in the token.

According to AMBCrypto’s technical analysis, SUI currently appears bearish, attributed to the ongoing token unlock and the breakdown of a key support level.

The asset had been holding along an ascending trendline during its upward MOVE from the lower boundary to the upper boundary.

Source: TradingView

If SUI successfully closes a four-hour candle below the ascending trendline, there is a strong possibility that the asset could drop by 10% to 12% to reach the $2.40 level.

This bearish outlook and market sentiment for the token could potentially change if it breaks out of the descending channel pattern; otherwise, it is likely to remain sideways or in a downtrend.

At press time, the asset was trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily time frame, indicating that it will remain in a downtrend as long as the price stays below this level.

Traders’ bearish view

Traders appear to be aligning with the bearish outlook, as reported by the on-chain analytics firm CoinGlass.

AMBCrypto’s analysis revealed that traders were over-leveraged at the $2.67 support level, with $12.45 million worth of long positions.

$2.848 is another over-leveraged level, where traders have built $16.66 million worth of short positions.

Source: CoinGlass

Combining this, data suggests that bears are currently in control and believe that SUI is unlikely to break above the $2.848 level anytime soon.

$16.40 million worth of SUI outflow 

Investors and long-term holders appeared to be accumulating and taking advantage of the asset’s price dip.

Data from the Spot Inflow/Outflow showed that exchanges across the crypto landscape have recorded an outflow of $16.40 million worth of SUI tokens.

Source: CoinGlass

This substantial outflow, amid the current market sentiment, suggests potential accumulation and indicates that it may be an ideal time for long-term accumulation.