Bitcoin Crushes War FUD—But Brace for Tariff Tremors That Could Rock BTC Harder

Bitcoin just bulldozed through war-related fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) like a bull in a china shop. But don’t pop the champagne yet—tariff shocks loom as the next gut-punch for crypto markets.

Why tariffs could hit harder than geopolitics

While BTC shrugged off conflict-driven volatility, trade wars threaten to expose crypto’s dirty secret: it’s still tied to traditional finance’s puppet strings. When tariffs disrupt global liquidity flows, even digital gold catches a cold.

The institutional paradox

Wall Street’s embrace means BTC now dances to macro tunes—ironic for an asset born to bypass bankers. Recent 10% swings on tariff rumors prove crypto’s ‘decoupling’ narrative remains as convincing as a used-car salesman’s warranty.

Wake-up call for crypto maximalists

If you thought Bitcoin was immune to fiscal policy, 2025’s tariff tango just schooled you. The asset may be digital, but its price drivers? Painfully analog. (Cue eye-roll from the ‘number go up’ crowd.)

Bitcoin reacts to whale pressure, not macro chaos

Skeptics may highlight Bitcoin’s swift drop to $98k on the 22nd of June as evidence that macro volatility was creeping back in. But from a broader perspective, the damage appeared limited.

Compared to the sharp 22% monthly drawdown during the “Liberation Day” collapse, the current 11% pullback looks more like a healthy retest than a structural breakdown.

What drove the softer impact? Simple: The market didn’t buy into the idea of a drawn-out conflict.

One of the biggest tells was oil. Rather than spiking, prices actually dropped nearly 15% to $60/barrel, even as Iran struck U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar. 

Source: TradingView (WTI Crude Oil)

In fact, on-chain confirmed the reaction was more profit-taking than panic. As BTC broke past $100k and flirted with a new ATH, whales used the momentum to offload.

On the 16th of June, whales holding over 1k BTC deposited a massive 20,000 BTC, triggering a clean breakdown below the $105k support with a 2.71% intraday drop the next day.

But with broader sentiment stable and volatility contained, Bitcoin’s pullback stayed relatively shallow at just 11%, reinforcing the case for a controlled cooldown rather than signaling deeper structural weakness.

Countdown to tariff turbulence

In case you forgot, President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause expires on the 9th of July, and unless new trade deals are struck, the market will face a sharp reset in global trade flows.

In fact, the reset will be significant: Reciprocal tariffs will return, the EU faces import tariffs up to 50%, China retains 30%, and the global 10% baseline stays in place. 

Notably, equity markets have front-run the optimism, with the S&P500 rallying over 1,200 points since the 9th of April.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has surged 37% over the same window, pushing its average spot price to around $105k.

Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

But as the tariff deadline approaches, the stakes rise. If renewed trade frictions stoke inflation through Q3 and Q4, the Fed’s path to even a single rate cut could be blocked.

In turn, whales, who remained relatively composed through the war FUD, may now adopt more reactive positioning.

With volatility likely to return in force, Bitcoin’s $100k level could face its most meaningful test yet, with heavier macro weight behind it this time.