$15B Bitcoin Options Expiration Today – Brace for Crypto Market Turmoil?

Today's $15B Bitcoin options expiry isn't just another Friday—it's a potential powder keg for crypto markets.

Will whales play nice or trigger a liquidity massacre?

Market makers are sweating bullets as open interest hits critical mass. The last time we saw this much notional value expiring, BTC volatility spiked 40% in 48 hours. But hey—Wall Street's 'risk management' algorithms will surely handle it flawlessly (insert eye-roll here).

Key factors at play:

- Max pain price clusters around $60K

- Gamma exposure flipping negative

- Spot volumes drying up pre-London close

Retail traders: buckle up. Institutional sharks are circling, and they didn't get rich playing fair. One thing's certain—by Monday, someone's going to be holding a very expensive bag.

Upward pressure on Bitcoin

At press time, Bitcoin’s Options Open Interest showed a bullish tilt, with traders holding 79,630 call contracts compared to 59,770 puts. This set the Put/Call Ratio at 0.75.

That’s a pretty clear sign the market’s leaning bullish, but not in an overly crowded way. The total OI stood at a hefty 139,400 contracts, making this one of the largest expiries in recent months. 

The critical pressure point? Max pain was at $102,000, while Bitcoin’s spot price traded at $5,500 higher. This gap places dealers in a short gamma position, as most calls are now DEEP in the money.

Source: Deribit

Market makers respond by hedging their risk through spot or Futures buying, which injects mechanical bid pressure into Bitcoin ahead of expiry.

Simply put, if BTC continues to rise, this could trigger a gamma squeeze, where dealer hedging accelerates price momentum by forcing dealers to aggressively buy back BTC to stay delta-neutral.

Looking ahead, BTC holds a structurally bullish setup into expiry. If price breaks cleanly above resistance, the squeeze could fuel a swift push toward the $110k mark.

Post-expiry flows: What happens when Options settle

As noted earlier, the current Options structure has fueled a strong short-term bid in Bitcoin, with price rallying nearly 10% on the week and consolidating just below the key $110k resistance band.

But the real story kicks in after expiry. Once that $15 billion in Options clears, all those hedges come off, and suddenly the market’s wide open for fresh positioning.

Interestingly, that repositioning may already be underway. Bitcoin’s Options Open Interest just hit an all-time high of $51.10 billion, with Deribit commanding 80% of the flow.

Source: CoinGlass

Adding to the momentum, Deribit’s 24-hour Put/Call ratio has dropped to 0.36, clearly skewed toward fresh bullish bets, with over 186,421 new call contracts traded.

This matters. As the old positions unwind, triggering a wave of short-term volatility via forced selling or profit-taking, the influx of new long exposure could absorb that liquidity shock.

If that dynamic holds, it could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next breakout leg as we head into Q3.