Bitcoin’s Next Big Move: 4 Critical Scenarios for the 2025 Rally or Reversal

Bitcoin's at another inflection point—will it rocket past resistance or face a brutal rejection? Here's how the next chapter plays out.

The Bull Case: Liquidity Tsunami Ahead

Institutional inflows hit $1.2B last week—ETF approvals finally translating to real capital. Macro winds favor risk assets as Fed pivot rumors grow.

The Bear Trap: Overleveraged Longs at Risk

Open interest screams FOMO at current levels. Any downside volatility could trigger cascading liquidations in this overbought market.

The Sideways Grind: Miner Capitulation Mode

Hash ribbons flashing warning signs as smaller miners tap reserves. Historically precedes consolidation before next leg up—if BTC holds $60K.

The Black Swan: Tether FUD 2.0

Because what's a crypto cycle without regulators suddenly 'discovering' stablecoin risks? Cue the coordinated media onslaught.

Meanwhile, Wall Street still can't decide if Bitcoin's digital gold or a high-beta tech stock—but they'll keep collecting management fees either way.

Only one bullish path—Altcoin rally to follow?

The first case is the bullish scenario—also the only bullish one—called the “Delay Cycle” and the “Altcoin Rally opportunity.”

In this phase, Bitcoin would enter an accumulation and redistribution stage, essentially consolidating within a defined support and resistance range.

Source: TradingView

During this period, bitcoin is typically purchased in bulk at favorable prices, providing the momentum for a rally that could reach between $140,000 and $146,000 in October.

This Bitcoin consolidation phase WOULD likely trigger an Altcoin season, with many of these assets trending higher, potentially starting in July.

Three bearish outcomes could trap Bitcoin traders

The analysis also outlines three bearish tendencies for Bitcoin, each with similar characteristics.

In these phases, investors or traders with open positions would face significant pressure, as price movement will primarily target liquidity zones.

Source: TradingView

The first bearish scenario shares similarities with the bullish case, involving similar consolidation. However, instead of breaking out above the resistance level, Bitcoin would plunge below, breaching the support of the consolidation range.

The other two bearish scenarios involve price trading into the resistance level only once.

Source: TradingView

In one of these scenarios, the asset reacts to resistance above and then moves sideways in a tight range before ultimately breaking down.

In the final case, Bitcoin maintains a bearish stance and experiences a sharp drop, with minimal consolidation along the way.

Analyst Jao Wedson notes that one scenario is critical in determining Bitcoin’s neutrality.

“The most interesting of the four scenarios is the first one: if confirmed, it reinforces that BTC continues to follow its natural cycles, regardless of market narratives.”

Investors accumulate despite uncertainty

AMBCrypto examined additional market indicators to assess Bitcoin’s potential direction.

 In the wake of its recent price drop, investors have started accumulating BTC in large volumes. At press time, Exchange Netflow data, which tracks inflows and outflows on centralized platforms,  reflected a net buying trend.

Source: CryptoQuant

At the time of writing, around 1,400 BTC, worth approximately $141 million, has been purchased and moved into private wallets.

This coincides with a significant drop in bitcoin exchange Reserves, suggesting that less BTC is available on exchanges.

Lower Exchange Reserves could lead to a supply squeeze, which may drive the asset’s price higher over the long term.

Source: CryptoQuant

Bullish sentiment is also starting to reflect in the derivatives market. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on CoinGlass has risen and at press time sits at 0.98.

A ratio above 1 would indicate that buy volume is exceeding sell volume in derivatives, reinforcing the growing bullish momentum.