XRP at a Crossroads: SEC Deadline Looms – Will It Surge Past $2.38 or Crash Below?

The clock''s ticking for XRP as a critical SEC deadline approaches—price action hangs in the balance. Will bulls push past the $2.38 resistance or will bears drag it into the abyss?

Market watchers are glued to their screens, torn between hopium and the cold reality of regulatory roulette. One thing''s certain: volatility''s back on the menu.

Meanwhile, Wall Street''s still trying to mint NFTs of their paper certificates. Some things never change.

Volume drops, but OI holds firm

XRP’s spot volume has cooled significantly from its December highs, hovering at $5.09 billion at press time – a contrast to the $70B+ spikes seen during previous surges.

Source: CoinGlass

Yet, Futures Open Interest remains elevated at $4.14 billion, so traders aren’t backing down.

Source: Coinglass

This is a market quietly bracing for volatility, likely tied to the impending SEC litigation.

While price remains range-bound, the steady leverage exposure implies conviction, either for a breakout or a breakdown.

In short, sentiment is split, but positioning is anything but flat.

All eyes on the SEC

With a court-imposed deadline looming, the SEC is expected to update the Court of Appeals on its settlement talks with Ripple by the 16th of June, a potential turning point in the multi-year legal standoff.

Since Judge Analisa Torres denied the agency’s bid for an indicative ruling, progress has stalled.

Yet, the SEC’s pattern of last-minute filings keeps markets on edge. A withdrawal of the appeal could dramatically boost XRP’s regulatory standing and revive ETF hopes.

Polymarket odds reflect that optimism, pricing in an 88% chance of ETF approval by year-end.

Source: Polymarket

XRP tests mid-band as momentum stalls

XRP hovered NEAR the midline of its Bollinger Bands, showing signs of consolidation after failing to break above the upper band resistance.

The price at press time – $2.25 – suggested a weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at a neutral 49.23: neither oversold nor overbought.

Source: TradingView

Volume remained subdued at 16.05 million, reinforcing the market’s indecisiveness ahead of the SEC update.

If buyers regain control and push past $2.38, a retest of $2.60 becomes likely. Conversely, a drop below $2.10 could trigger further downside.

For now, XRP is trading cautiously.