Bitcoin’s Bull Run: Just Getting Started or Running on Fumes?
Bitcoin’s latest surge has traders buzzing—but is the rally built to last? The charts might hold the answer.
Breaking down the momentum
Key indicators suggest BTC isn’t done yet. The MACD shows bullish divergence, while RSI flirts with overbought territory—classic signs of a market that’s heating up but not yet overheated.The institutional factor
Whales are accumulating, and futures open interest just hit a 3-month high. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s latest ‘crypto expert’ (read: intern who read one Satoshi whitepaper) keeps calling the top.What history says
Past halving cycles saw 12-18 month run-ups post-event. If the pattern holds, we’re barely halfway through this party—though past performance guarantees exactly nothing in crypto’s casino economy.The bottom line? This bull might still have legs. Or it might be one leveraged long away from a 20% correction. Either way, buckle up.
The Bitcoin bulls’ best is yet to come?
Source: Alphractal on X
In a post on X, analytics platform Alphractal observed that the 1000-day RSI had broken out from the descending trendline.
Moreover, like it did during the previous cycles’ bull runs, the ascending trendline formed from the depths of the bear market was retested as support.
This retest came in April, when bitcoin was forced to fall as far south as $74.5k. Due to Bitcoin’s positive reaction, Alphractal concluded that it was too early to call a bear market.
A breakdown below the RSI 1000 could offer a selling opportunity. Meanwhile, the bull market still has steam to go further.
Source: Glassnode
The MVRV pricing bands use a multiple of the MVRV ratio to understand when the market has reached extreme levels.
Bitcoin spent a good chunk of the first half of 2021 NEAR the 3.2 times multiple of the realized price.
In this cycle, the 3.2 line has not been breached yet. While it indicated the best of the bull run was yet to come, investors should remember that not every cycle must be alike.
Source: BTC/USD on TradingView
AMBCrypto found an interesting parallel from 2021. The 400-day moving average (green) was retested as support during the bull run back then. This retest sparked a rapid rally to new highs.
Similarly, in April 2025, BTC again retested the 400 DMA, rallying explosively from the dynamic support and making a new high.
If the current cycle mirrors the previous one, we could be near a top, but once again, no two cycles are alike. The 1000 RSI could be one to watch, and can help mark the end of the bull run.
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