Bitcoin Wallet Creation Surges to 6-Month Peak—So Why Are Traders Still on the Sidelines?

New Bitcoin wallets are popping up at the fastest rate since December 2024—but the trading frenzy hasn't followed. What's holding back the usual speculative rush?

The On-Chain Paradox

Blockchain data doesn't lie: fresh addresses are being minted like meme coins in a bull market. Yet exchange volumes remain suspiciously calm—almost as if Wall Street's algo-traders forgot to flip their 'risk-on' switches this week.

Retail FOMO vs. Institutional Hesitation

Retail investors appear to be prepping for something big (hello, halving cycle math), while whales cling to stablecoins like life preservers. Classic case of Main Street optimism meeting Wall Street's analysis paralysis.

The Cynic's Take

Maybe—just maybe—the 'smart money' is too busy chasing SEC-approved ETF flows to notice actual blockchain activity. Nothing says 'financial innovation' like ignoring the innovation to play regulatory arbitrage.

Restrained sell pressure from mining entities

The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) ROSE 9.85% over the last day to -0.55. Despite the uptick, it remained negative, suggesting miners were still net holders.

A lower MPI often reflects confidence from miners, indicating they expect higher prices ahead. 

Miners are historically price-sensitive and tend to sell during tops. So far, their restraint suggests reduced sell-side pressure. 

This supports a bullish environment, especially if combined with consistent accumulation from other long-term holders, who also remain relatively inactive.

Source: CryptoQuant

Limited movement from dormant coins

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) climbed 2.22% to 21.97 million. The metric measures the movement of older BTC that has not been transacted in a long time. 

A slight increase means some long-held coins are moving, but the level is not high enough to trigger concern. 

In bull markets, sharp spikes in CDD typically signal profit-taking. However, the current modest rise suggests long-term holders are still largely on the sidelines. 

Their reluctance to sell supports price stability and reflects continued confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

Source: CryptoQuant

The scarcity narrative, reinforced

Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio (S2F) has surged by 300.01% to 6.3598M. The model compares current circulating supply to new issuance, and a rising ratio indicates growing scarcity. 

This spike could reinforce the store-of-value narrative, especially with supply tightening after the halving. Historically, strong S2F trends have aligned with bullish phases. 

The recent surge suggests investors are beginning to price in future scarcity, potentially setting the stage for a supply-driven price rally if demand continues to rise alongside network growth.

Source: CryptoQuant

Futures rise but Options slump

Bitcoin derivatives activity presents mixed signals.

Futures volume rose 0.14% to $70.45B, showing continued market interest. 

However, Open Interest dipped by 1.02% to $70.49B, and Options volume dropped 23.38% to $2.80B, indicating reduced speculative engagement. 

On the other hand, Options Open Interest grew 1.39% to $40.99B, suggesting some long-term positioning remains. These opposing trends reflect caution.

Traders may be waiting for stronger price signals before committing further. Despite on-chain optimism, the derivatives market hasn’t yet confirmed a breakout.

Source: CoinGlass

While on-chain data reflects renewed growth and miner confidence, derivatives activity signals hesitation. 

The metrics suggest strength under the surface, but Bitcoin still needs stronger momentum and conviction from Leveraged players to break past $105K.

Until then, consolidation remains likely.