Bitcoin Smashes Through $110K – Here’s the Make-or-Break Moment for the Rally

Bitcoin just bulldozed past $110,000—again. But before the champagne corks fly, there’s one critical factor that’ll decide whether this rally has legs or becomes another ’buy the rumor, sell the news’ circus.

The real test? Sustained volume. Without whales and retail piling in to defend this level, even the most bullish chart patterns won’t save BTC from gravity. And let’s be honest—since when has crypto ever followed the script?

Watch the order books. If bids stack up like Wall Street’s excuses during a crash, we’re golden. If not? Well, at least the memes will be entertaining.

Older wallets start to move—but cautiously

Source: Checkonchain

Data from Checkonchain revealed a sharp drop in the HODLer Net Position Change metric, which fell to -30.8K BTC.

With this metric dropping to a negative value for a sustained period, it suggests that long-term holders are moving coins.

According to Glassnode, spending by long-term holders is currently at a 3-month high.

Moreover, Spent Volume by Age showed that aggregate BTC sales from the 1–5 year cohort spiked to $4.02 billion—marking the highest such outflow since February.

Source: Glassnode

Those who have held Bitcoin for 3–5 years have spent the most, selling BTC worth $2.16 billion. This is the second-largest outflow from the cohort this cycle.

The 2–3 year cohort followed with $1.41 billion in spent volume, while 1–2 year holders moved $450 million.

How does it stack up against previous cycles?

Source: Glassnode

Although spending by long-term holders seems relatively high, it still remains low when we look at previous cycles.

In February 2025, Bitcoin holders for 2 to 3 years sold $5.42 billion worth of BTC. In October 2024, those who held for 1 to 2 years offloaded $9.25 billion.

This trend shows that older wallets tend to sell more as prices rise, as seen in November 2024, when the 3 to 5-year cohort sold $4.39 billion worth of BTC during a price rally.

Source: Checkonchain

Moreover, the Long-Term Holder Supply Net Position Change remains positive at around 745K BTC. That indicates a net accumulation trend, not mass exit behavior.

Why this still favors BTC’s upside

Although older wallets are selling Bitcoin, they are not spending as much. Therefore, the current spending rate, although concerning, based on historical cycles, LTHs are holding strong.

Looking at the supply dynamics, it seems that some long-term holders are strategically exiting the market to take a profit.

Therefore, we can say that it’s the normal market pattern as Bitcoin enters the discovery phase.

Unless selling pressure accelerates sharply, BTC’s bullish trajectory remains intact. If current conditions persist, Bitcoin could target $120K in the short term—before more aggressive profit-taking kicks in.