Bitcoin HODLers Dig In: $11B in Unrealized Profits—Will Diamond Hands Pay Off?

While Wall Street sweats over quarterly earnings, Bitcoin’s long-term holders just shrugged off $11 billion in potential profits. No panic, no fire sales—just the quiet confidence of those who’ve survived crypto winters before.

These aren’t your day-trading degenerates. This is the ’buy cold storage and forget the password’ crowd. The same folks who laughed through 80% drawdowns now watch altcoin gamblers FOMO into the latest memecoin.

Will their patience beat the market again? Or is this the calm before the inevitable ’take profits’ stampede? Only time will tell—but for now, HODLers aren’t budging. After all, what’s another 50% volatility when you’re playing with the house’s money?

(Funny how ’diamond hands’ only get tested when there are actual gains to lose—unlike your average startup equity package.)

Investors hold tight, even with billions in unrealized gains

Despite the recent price rally, holders and investors are not profit-taking as much as in previous cycles. In fact, both whales and retailers are showing less appetite for profit realization.

Source: CryptoQuant

According to a CryptoQuant analyst, realized profits stood at 104,000 BTC (~$11B).

Although this looks like a significant amount, the previous cycles have recorded a significantly higher amount. The current levels remain considerably far from the critical threshold of 350,000 BTC.

In fact, BTC has another 246,000 BTC of realized profit headroom before flashing a historical red flag.

Naturally, this gap suggests investors are holding onto their coins instead of selling into strength.

SOPR decline confirms a shift in BTC sentiment

Source: CryptoQuant

Backing this thesis is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR).

This metric has declined for five consecutive days despite prices reaching $112k.

Even when the price reached another all-time high, the SOPR dropped, suggesting that holders, although in profit, are refusing to sell.

The drop in profit-taking is observed among whales and retail traders in equal measures.

As per CryptoQuant data, whales are still HODLing with their activity remaining within the neutral zone.

During the previous rally, whale inflows to exchanges exceeded $1 billion. Today? Just $300 million.

Source: CryptoQuant

This is a significant low level since BTC is experiencing favorable conditions and has entered the discovery phase. Thus, large holders are holding their positions, waiting for more upside before ramping up their selling.

Spent volume and exchange flows reinforce the picture

While a price surge means higher profit-taking activity, things have changed significantly.

Investors are behaving differently this cycle by not selling to take profits, indicating increased confidence. As a result, the total Volume Spent by Age has decreased by $1.1 billion during this price rally compared to the last cycle.

Source: Glassnode

At the same time, Exchange Netflow remains largely negative.

Investors are withdrawing more BTC than they’re depositing, a signal that accumulation is outweighing distribution.

Source: CryptoQuant

What comes next for Bitcoin?

Simply put, participants across the markets remain bullish and anticipate prices to rise even further. Therefore, the prevailing market conditions position BTC for more gains.

A continuation of these sentiments will see BTC reclaim $100k again.

However, if the tariff talk continues, which has seen BTC drop to a low of $106k, we could see another consolidation with a low of $104k.