Altcoin Season Roars Back—Here’s What the Charts Won’t Tell You

Bitcoin dominance slips as ETH and major alts post double-digit gains—just like clockwork, or another trap for overeager retail?

Key signals flashing: Ethereum breaks $4K resistance, BNB chain activity spikes 40%, and ’shitcoin’ social volume hits 2025 highs. Classic FOMO or sustainable rotation?

Traders pile into alt positions while Wall Street hedgies ’monitor the situation’ (translation: scrambling to reposition after betting against crypto—again).

One rule remains: When your Uber driver starts shilling memecoins, it’s already too late.

Source: Swissblock

The attached chart shows an uptick in positive altcoin impulse (blue), a trend flashed in both February and November 2024 altcoin run-ups. 

Altcoin momentum improves

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen echoed Swissblock’s outlook.

Cowen noted that, from a price chart perspective, there was an increasing number of altcoins above the 100-day  Simple Moving Average (SMA).  

Source: X

AMBCrypto checked key altcoin season indicators to gauge the budding traction.

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) hit a cycle high of 65.3% in early May, slowing the broader altcoin sector’s April recovery. 

However, last week’s BTC jump above $100K was also marked by a sharp 4% drop in BTC dominance to 62%. 

Source: TradingView (Altcoin market performance vs. BTC, USDT dominance)

Besides, Tether’s USDT dominance (USDT, orange) has declined from 6% to 4.5% in the past three weeks. This meant that the altcoin sector saw some capital rotation from BTC. 

This was confirmed by a rebound in altcoin market cap (purple), excluding BTC and ethereum [ETH], from over $600 billion to over $900 billion. 

For context, last November’s altcoin pump was marked by similar signals – a sharp drop in BTC and USDT dominance. Simply put, the Swissblock outlook may be validated if the trend repeats. 

That said, it was still a firm BTC season as of the time of writing, per the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) reading of 27. 

Source: Blockchain Centre

Notably, the ASI is a lagging indicator. It tracks BTC’s performance against altcoins over the past 90 days.

Despite this, Monero [XMR], Sui [SUI], Bittensor [TAO], and Tron [TRX] have outperformed BTC in the same period.

Since April, altcoin season momentum has increased. However, not all altcoins will perform equally. Focusing on sub-sector leaders with strong fundamentals could improve positioning.