98% of Bitcoin Wallets in Profit—But the Party Might Not Last

Bitcoin’s bull run has left nearly all holders sitting pretty—for now. On-chain metrics flash warning signs beneath the champagne-popping surface.

The euphoria trap

Network congestion and rising transaction fees hint at speculative froth. Even Wall Street’s latecomers are piling in—always a reliable contrarian indicator.

The sell-pressure countdown

Exchange inflows tick up as long-term holders eye exits. Meanwhile, the ’realized price’ metric—the average cost basis of all BTC—sits dangerously close to current levels. One shakeout could vaporize paper gains.

Enjoy the green while it lasts. Just remember: in crypto, the only thing harder than making money is keeping it.

Source: CryptoQuant

When everyone wins, does the market lose?

Historically, such conditions align with early market euphoria, where the vast majority of holders are in profit.

AMBCrypto observed this as Bitcoin’s NUPL has risen consecutively over the past week, reaching 0.56. Here, most of the bitcoin holders are increasingly confident but not yet fully grown, as they still anticipate higher prices.

Source: CryptoQuant

Euphoria may be closer than it appears

Of course, this Optimism can flip quickly.

Notably, when BTC Supply in Loss drops to between 0–2%, it typically coincides with late-stage bull runs. Often, these moments tend to cluster NEAR macro tops where holders start to become overconfident.

Using NUPL, this phase enters when the NUPL reaches 0.75.

With most BTC holders in profit, the risk of distribution rises. Long-term holders may view this as a chance to derisk, while newcomers might see it as a reason to chase gains, leading to a potential sentiment mismatch.

Source: CryptoQuant

We can see that holders have started distributing as some turn to profit realization.

Exchange Netflows turned positive, with 756 BTC moving onto exchanges in the last 48 hours. That shift suggests more deposits than withdrawals, typically a sign of selling pressure rising.

This aligns with previous cycles, where positive Netflows emerged just before local tops.

Seen this before?

With the same pattern emerging once again, the question is whether history will repeat itself and see BTC reach a top for this cycle.

Significantly, the extremely low percentage of supply in loss is a sign of a mature market phase. With Exchange Flows starting to signal distribution, the market could enter an overheated zone in the near term.

If history repeats itself, we could see Bitcoin face correction and drop again below $100k towards $96k.

However, since the top emerges weeks after supply in loss drops to current levels, BTC could hold strongly above the current rate and attempt a jump to $106K, where it was rejected multiple times previously before it jumped to $109k in January 2025.