Toncoin eyes a breakout amid rejection – Is a major rally coming?

• Toncoin is testing a breakout above its bullish ascending triangle following Pavel Durov’s permitted leave for Dubai.
• Despite price rejection and consolidation, on-chain metrics reveal renewed optimism among traders and a potential breakout.

Toncoin [TON] has surged 3.04% in price and 20.83% in trading volume in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.

This follows the return of Telegram founder and CEO, Pavel Durov, to Dubai, after French authorities granted him a leave.

The coin has tested a breakout above its bullish ascending triangle and faced a temporary rejection. As network activity rises, traders wonder if a rally is due soon.

Toncoin’s price action and technical indicators

Looking at the 1-hour chart, TON was in an ascending bullish triangle formation and trading at $3.567 at press time.

The altcoin has made its third breakout attempt above the $3.60 key resistance zone and faced a temporary rejection as the price consolidated.

A successful breakout above this bullish pattern could see TON rally toward $3.90, a previous key resistance level in the mid-term.

Source: TradingView

Toncoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 58, showing increased buying pressure. Additionally, the MACD (12), short-term and mid-term moving averages signaled a strong ‘buy’.

TON’s long-term moving averages signalled ‘sell’, and the Average Direction Index (ADX,14) remained neutral. This means high buying pressure is necessary to break the $3.60 resistance and start TON’s uptrend rally.

A look into the on-chain insights

According to Coinglass, Toncoin’s Open Interest ROSE by 10.55% in the past 24 hours, as its Open Interest (OI) Weighted Funding Rate turned positive. This suggests investor confidence in Pavel Durov.

His views on freedom, leadership, and association with the TON network could boost investors’ long-term conviction.

Source: Coinglass

At the time of writing, Toncoin saw its network activity rise in the past 48 hours with a 6.75% surge in active addresses, per Artemis. Similarly, the Total Value Locked (TVL) increased steadily, showing investor optimism.

Source: Artemis

According to IntoTheBlock, the total exchange netflow in the past week stood at $46.23K, suggesting a slight sell-off. Additionally, most holders of TON are large-scale investors.

The past 48 hours saw a surge in exchange outflow signaling whale accumulation, reflected in the rising trading volume.

TON could be eyeing a breakout as investors target long-term gains amid Pavel Durov’s anticipated freedom and leadership.

Traders should watch for Toncoin’s movement inside the ascending triangle pattern and whale activity. A breakout could trigger a rally toward $3.90 while a breakdown could lead to a mid-term price correction.