Polymarket Predicts Zohran Mamdani as NY Election Frontrunner—Bets Lock In

Prediction markets are doubling down—Zohran Mamdani’s NY election odds just got the Polymarket seal of approval. The platform’s crowd-sourced wisdom now treats his victory as near-inevitable, leaving traditional pollsters scrambling to justify their fees.

Why trust a room of analysts when you can crowdsource the hive mind? Polymarket’s tokenized bets cut through the noise, bypassing political punditry with cold, hard market logic. The numbers don’t lie—unless you’re a hedge fund manager, in which case, neither do you.

New York’s political landscape might be chaotic, but the market’s verdict is clear. Whether this is democracy in action or degenerate gambling depends on who’s holding the bag.

How Would You Ensure No Billionaires Exist, Though?

Look at it this way:

• 1 million seconds is 11.5 days
• 1 billion seconds is roughly 32 years

The difference is absurd; it’s an obscene amount of money.

That’s at least the logic of the Mamdani supporters online, and they do have a point: New York’s wealth inequality is the worst in the nation.

According to Mamdani and NY Senator Alexander Ocasio-Cortez, billionaires should be taxed accordingly. They should take enough wealth and use it for the people.

To paraphrase their movement, taxing billionaires to the point that they remain millionaires is the equivalent of shaving off excess frosting on a cake.

However, the counterargument coming from AI Czar David Sachs and others is that billionaires will leave NYC en masse. They’ll go to Texas, Florida, Liechtenstein, UAE, Monaco, Buenos Aires, Singapore, or any number of other places outside of a socialist’s reach.

Wake up, Silicon Valley. This is the future of the Democrat Party. Communism has defeated liberalism. Even Bill Clinton has bent the knee. You basically have two choices now: Get on board with MAGA or prepare to be on Mamdani’s dinner menu. https://t.co/L5OKzRA3Gl

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) June 29, 2025

Some of the more extreme sides of the socialist movement have argued that it is treason to leave the country with wealth earned off the backs of their countrymen.

Polymarket: Mamdani Tops Democratic Primary

Despite his loss, Andrew Cuomo has signaled his intention to run independently under the “Fight and Deliver Party.” Similarly, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams remains in the race as an independent, following a controversial tenure marked by corruption allegations that the Department of Justice later abandoned.

The Polymarket odds stand at Mamdani at 69%, Adams at 19% and Cuomo at 10%.

Mamdani declared, “Tonight, we made history. I will be your Democratic nominee for the mayor of New York City.”

Polymarket’s Mixed Track Record

Regardless of how Mamdani’s vision pans out, Polymarket gave Cuomo 80% odds for two months. That flipped within 30 minutes of vote returns, and Mamdani shot to 94.6%.

Nate Silver credited the platform for beating cable news to the punch. While its early bets missed, it nailed the turn when it mattered.

However, it should be noted that Polymarket was wrong and could screw up other critical elections in the future.

Key Takeaways

• According to Mamdani, “No one should have make billions. It’s beyond excessive.”
• Nate Silver credited Polymarket for beating cable news to the punch, but technically, it was wrong. .