BTCC Daily (9.11) | U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Nears 5%, Brent Crude Pulls Back Sharply After Approaching $110

Top Highlights

• U.S. August CPI will be released today. Markets expect headline CPI to rise 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month over month and 2.4% year over year.

• The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 4.979% intraday, approaching the 5% threshold. Market pricing for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September rose to around 67%—70%.

• BTC pulled back to around $77,000. On September 10 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $282.7 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of about $29.9 million.

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• U.S. August CPI

• U.S. August core CPI

• Preliminary U.S. September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

• Preliminary U.S. September University of Michigan consumer inflation expectations

Macro Headlines

1. U.S. August CPI due today, markets expect 3.4% annual increase

U.S. August CPI will be released today. A Reuters poll shows that markets expect headline CPI to rise 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month over month and 2.4% year over year. Gasoline prices rose again in August, while the previously released PPI rose 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year, making this CPI report one of the most important data releases before next week’s FOMC meeting.

2. Fed September hike pricing rises to around 70%

With oil prices remaining elevated and U.S. producer-price inflation picking up again, interest-rate markets raised pricing for a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September 15-16 meeting to around 67%—70%. The Fed’s current policy-rate range is 3.50%—3.75%, and today’s CPI result will further shape market expectations for the September policy path.

3. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rises intraday to 4.979%

Global bond markets remained under pressure. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 4.979% intraday, near a three-year high, before easing back to around 4.95%. The 30-year yield briefly rose to 5.3836%, while the 2-year yield touched a 14-month high of 4.5961%. Energy inflation and expectations of further tightening by major central banks continued to push up long-end global yields.

4. ECB raises rates by another 25 basis points

The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, marking its second rate hike this year. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the Middle East energy shock could keep inflation above target for longer, while also saying eurozone economic activity remained resilient.

5. Brent crude briefly approaches $110 as IEA cuts global supply outlook

Brent crude briefly rose to $109.97 per barrel on Friday, a four-month high, before pulling back to around $106. It is still up about 10% this week. The IEA now expects global oil supply in 2026 could fall by 5.7 million barrels per day due to the Middle East conflict and delayed recovery in Gulf energy transportation, a larger reduction than its previous estimate of about 4%.

Global Asset Performance

• Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down about 1.9%. Korea’s KOSPI Index fell about 1.8%, with heavyweight tech stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix under pressure. U.S. stock futures rebounded mildly before the open, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures generally up about 0.3%—0.4% as markets awaited U.S. CPI data.

• Crypto: CoinMarketCap data showed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 67, in the greed zone. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.62 trillion, down around 1.5% over the past 24 hours. BTC traded near $77,000, while ETH was around $2,460. ZEC fell rapidly from recent highs to around $1,100, down more than 10% in 24 hours.

• Energy & Metals: Brent crude retreated from an intraday high of $109.97 to about $105.9 per barrel, while WTI crude fell to around $101.1 per barrel. Spot gold rose about 0.8% to $4,352 per ounce, while spot silver gained about 0.6% to $63.93 per ounce.

(Data as of September 11, 15:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

On September 11, according to Coinglass data, BTC, ZEC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, and other contracts led net outflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours, potentially signaling trading opportunities.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Map

On September 11, according to Coinglass data, based on the current reference price of $77,293 on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, if Bitcoin falls below $75,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.25 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $79,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.4 billion. Traders are advised to manage leverage prudently to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

3. Bitcoin Futures Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 17:00 HKT on September 11, the overall Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 0.9114, indicating that bears currently hold a relative advantage.

4. TradFi Futures Performance

On September 11, TradFi contracts were mixed. Crude oil strengthened, with CL and BZ rising 1.66% and 1.17%, while 24-hour trading volume surged 133.55% and 129.06%, respectively. SPCX gained 1.23%. Precious metals came under pressure, with XAU down 1.07% and XAG down 3.88%, though XAG OI rose against the trend by 18.64%. Tech-related contracts were weaker, with SOXL, KORU, and SNDK falling 3.60%, 3.55%, and 2.25%, respectively.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• A Bhutan Royal Government address transferred out 400 BTC, worth about $30.62 million. The receiving address is believed to be linked to state-owned investment arm Druk Holding & Investments, though the specific purpose of the transfer has not yet been confirmed.

• A whale that had not bought ETH for about five months used around 4.82 million USDT to purchase 1,951 ETH at an average price of about $2,469.6, then deposited the ETH into Morpho.

• A newly created address accumulated 2,100 ETH, worth about $5.18 million, at an average withdrawal price of about $2,469. ETH was the address’s only holding at the time of monitoring.

Blockchain Headlines

• On September 10 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $282.7 million, including $164.3 million from ARKB. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of about $29.9 million over the same period.

• Singapore Exchange received authorization from the U.S. CFTC to allow eligible U.S. institutional investors to trade its BTC and ETH perpetual contracts. Since their launch in November 2025, the products have recorded cumulative trading volume of about $5.8 billion.

• Senate Republicans released a revised version of the CLARITY Act, adding regulatory provisions for non-DeFi trading protocols. The Senate plans to hold its first procedural vote on September 15.

• U.S. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will deliver the closing keynote at the Solana Summit on September 14, while SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce will also join related discussions.

• A South Korean investor-services company estimated that after the tokenized securities regime launches next February, South Korea’s tokenized securities market could reach about KRW 10 trillion even with penetration of only 0.1%—0.2%.

• The UK House of Lords passed an amendment by 194 votes to 138 requiring the government to develop a national digital-asset strategy covering crypto assets, stablecoins, and tokenized securities.

• Bitwise announced that it will liquidate and close the Dogecoin ETF (BWOW). October 14 is expected to be the final trading day, and remaining shareholders will receive the net cash value after liquidation on October 22.

• WalletConnect said in its global regulatory report that crypto regulation in major markets has shifted from “whether to regulate” toward practical implementation, but cross-border rules for DeFi and self-custody wallets remain clearly incomplete.

• XRP Ledger plans to gradually deploy quantum-resistant security measures before 2028. Major progress is expected in 2027, with a hybrid approach combining existing cryptography and post-quantum technology.

• Ripple expanded the AI capabilities of its enterprise treasury platform Ripple Treasury through GSmart, covering cash forecasting, liquidity management, risk control, reconciliation, and reporting. Final execution will still require human authorization.

Institutional Insights · Daily Picks

• JPMorgan: Analysts expect that by the end of 2026, eight of the nine major developed-economy central banks could raise rates further, including the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and multiple European central banks, leaving the global monetary-policy environment exposed to further tightening.

• UBS: Energy strategist Giovanni Staunovo said Middle East supply and shipping risks continue to put upward pressure on short-term oil prices, with volatility expected to remain elevated. Current restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transportation remain one of the most important uncertainties for the oil market.

• Commerzbank: FX analyst Michael Pfister said that even if tonight’s U.S. CPI comes in strong, the Fed may not mechanically raise rates in response to a single data point as long as core inflation still shows signs of cooling. Policymakers may continue to focus more on the inflation trend.

• Grayscale: Research head Zach Pandl said that even if the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, U.S. rules for stablecoins, token issuance, security tokens, and regulated perpetual contracts are still gradually becoming clearer. The main significance of CLARITY lies in further defining the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC.