Rate-Hike Odds Rise to 70% as BTC Falls to $77K, CPI Becomes the Key Variable

On September 11, markets returned to trading the themes of “high inflation, elevated oil prices, and rising rate-hike expectations.” U.S. August PPI came in above expectations, while both major oil benchmarks moved above $100, pushing expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike sharply higher. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthened in tandem, while U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto assets broadly came under pressure. BTC extended its recent decline and briefly fell below $77,000. Market attention has now shifted to the U.S. August CPI report due today.

PPI and Oil Prices Lift Rate-Hike Bets, CPI Becomes the Key Test

U.S. August PPI rose 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year, indicating that inflationary pressure at the producer level continued to build. Energy costs were the main driver behind the rebound in inflation.

At the same time, the conflict in the Middle East continued to widen, keeping oil prices elevated. Brent crude previously climbed above $108, while WTI rose to $104. High oil prices combined with a stronger-than-expected PPI pushed market expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September from around 60% to 70%.

Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 4.95%, while the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.30% to 99.08, putting broad pressure on risk assets. Spot gold fell sharply to around $4,300 on Thursday and has since edged back up to around $4,350.

The next major focus is the U.S. August CPI report. The U.S. Department of Labor will release the data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. If CPI remains hot, rate-hike expectations could rise further. If the data comes in below expectations, it could help ease upward pressure on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.

Stocks Fall Broadly as Semiconductors Come Under Pressure

All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Thursday. The Dow fell 0.60%, the Nasdaq declined 0.65%, and the S&P 500 lost 0.58%. Elevated oil prices and high interest rates continued to weigh on technology-stock valuations.

Semiconductor stocks were among the weaker performers. Nvidia fell 2.37%, while Micron Technology dropped 4.9%, becoming a major drag on the broader market. Apple bucked the trend and rose 3.56% as investors continued to digest the company’s newly launched $1,999 foldable iPhone. Oracle reported better-than-expected earnings, sending its shares up around 4% in after-hours trading.

The decline in risk appetite also spread to Asian markets. During the September 11 Asian session, the Nikkei 225 fell 2%, while South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 3%.

BTC Pulls Back to $77K as Short-Term Defense Takes Over

The crypto market remained under pressure. On September 11, BTCC market data showed BTC trading at around $77,300, down 1.18% over the past 24 hours. Since climbing above $82,000 on September 4, BTC has continued to post lower highs, falling below $80,000, $79,000, and $78,000 in succession. It is now fluctuating around $77,000, with the short-term market still in defensive mode.

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Fund flows have cooled noticeably. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of around $283 million yesterday and saw outflows for three consecutive trading days from September 8 to 10, totaling approximately $450 million. ETF flows have shifted from a previous source of support to a short-term headwind. Combined with a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields, this has weakened buying support for BTC.

Technically, the $76,500-$77,000 zone remains the key support area. A break below could open the door to a further test of $75,000. On the upside, BTC first needs to reclaim $78,000-$79,000. Only after regaining and holding above $80,000 would the current weak structure begin to improve. CryptoQuant analysts noted that BTC demand remains relatively weak, and if spot buying fails to improve quickly, the market could enter a deeper correction phase.

ETH has shown relative resilience and is currently trading near $2,450, after moving between $2,405 and $2,485 over the past 24 hours. ZEC, by contrast, has pulled back sharply from recent highs and is now trading around $1,090, down more than 13% over the past 24 hours, signaling rising profit-taking pressure across high-beta assets.

On the regulatory front, U.S. Senate Republicans released a revised version of the CLARITY Act and plan to hold the first procedural vote on September 15. Regulatory progress remains another key variable to watch.

Trading Watch

The market has shifted from high-level consolidation into short-term defense. BTC’s key range is $76,500-$79,000. If the lower end holds, there is still room for a recovery after the CPI release. If BTC falls below $76,500, traders should be alert to further liquidation of leveraged long positions.

With CPI due soon, market volatility could increase further. Rather than betting on direction in advance, it may be more important to watch whether BTC can quickly reclaim $78,000 after the data is released. For altcoins, priority should be given to liquid major assets with stable spot trading activity, while avoiding small-cap tokens already undergoing sharp pullbacks from elevated levels.

Risk Warning: Some of the views in this article are drawn from public media sources and are for reference only. They do not constitute any investment advice or trading recommendation. Markets involve risks, and trading should be approached with caution. Please ensure you have appropriate risk controls in place.