BTCC Daily (9.10) | U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4.86%, BTC Pulls Back to $78,000

Top Highlights

• Selling pressure in long-dated U.S. Treasuries persisted, with the 10-year yield briefly rising to around 4.86% and the 30-year yield climbing to about 5.31%.

• BTC pulled back to around $78,000. On September 9 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $120 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of around $34.75 million.

• U.S.-Iran maritime tensions continued to escalate, with Brent crude staying above $100 per barrel. Iran said it had attacked 10 vessels, keeping transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz in focus.

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• European Central Bank interest-rate decision

• ECB President Christine Lagarde holds monetary policy press conference

• U.S. August PPI

• U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended September 5

Macro Headlines

1. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rises to around 4.86%

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to around 4.86% on Thursday, while the 30-year yield climbed to about 5.31%. The U.S. Treasury announced that it would expand buybacks of 10- to 20-year off-the-run securities to as much as $6 billion, roughly three times the previous size, though still below some market expectations. The Treasury will also hold a 30-year bond auction tonight.

2. Markets price around 60% chance of September Fed hike

After resilient employment data and crude oil’s renewed break above $100, interest-rate markets priced the probability of a Fed rate hike next week at around 60%. However, a Reuters poll showed that about 70% of 93 economists expect the Fed to keep the 3.50%–3.75% target range unchanged in September. U.S. August PPI and Friday’s CPI will be the final key inflation data before the meeting.

3. ECB to announce interest-rate decision today

The European Central Bank will announce its latest interest-rate decision today. Markets broadly expect a 25-basis-point hike, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50%, which would mark the second rate increase since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict. With energy costs rising again and Brent crude breaking above $100, markets will focus on Christine Lagarde’s remarks on inflation and the future policy path.

4. Yen trades near seven-month high

Markets continue to bet that the Bank of Japan will further tighten policy at its September 17-18 meeting. BOJ board member Kazuya Masu previously said that if the pace of price increases accelerates significantly, the central bank may need to raise rates more quickly. Driven by policy expectations and earlier currency-market intervention, the yen has gained about 4% since the start of September and is trading near a seven-month high.

5. U.S.-Iran maritime conflict escalates

Iran said it attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. sank five Iranian oil tankers. Brent crude stayed above $100, up nearly 30% from its early-August low. At the same time, energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-conflict levels, keeping Middle East supply risks in focus.

Global Asset Performance

• Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 0.20% at 65,270.95. Korea’s KOSPI Index closed down 0.25% at 7,033.92. Among Korean large-cap tech stocks, Samsung Electronics fell 0.19%, while SK Hynix declined 0.16%. In U.S. premarket trading, S&P 500 futures rose about 0.1%, Dow futures gained about 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were nearly flat.

• Crypto: CoinMarketCap data showed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at around 70, in the greed zone. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.66 trillion, down around 2% over the past 24 hours. BTC traded near $78,000, down about 2% in 24 hours, while ETH traded near $2,470. ZEC remained above $1,200, with weekly gains still elevated.

• Energy & Metals: Brent crude rose about 0.3% to $102 per barrel, while WTI crude rose about 1.1% to $97.2 per barrel. Spot gold fell about 0.2% to $4,393 per ounce, while spot silver declined about 0.9%.

(Data as of September 10, 15:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

On September 10, according to Coinglass data, ETH, BTC, SOL, DOGE, HYPE, and other contracts led net outflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours, potentially signaling trading opportunities.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Map

On September 10, according to Coinglass data, based on the current reference price of $77,950 on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, if Bitcoin falls below $76,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.25 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $80,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.38 billion. Traders are advised to manage leverage prudently to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

3. Bitcoin Futures Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 16:00 HKT on September 10, the overall Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 0.9084, indicating that bears currently hold a relative advantage.

4. TradFi Futures Performance

On September 10, TradFi contracts were mixed. SKHY rose 2.49%, with 24-hour OI surging 53.61%. CL gained 1.72%, while SOXL and MU rose 1.19% and 1.35%, respectively. Precious metals saw limited movement, with XAU and XAG up 0.05% and 0.33%. SPCX fell 3.44% and KORU declined 1.94%, while OI dropped 17.55% and 8.97%, respectively.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• According to Lookonchain, whale address 0x8e48 bought another 116,427 HYPE about six hours ago, worth around $9.91 million. Over the past eight months, the address has accumulated about 1.89 million HYPE through Galaxy Digital, worth about $159 million, and has staked all of it.

• Three wallets suspected to belong to the same whale used 3,700 ETH and 2 million USDC to buy 8,994 ZEC, worth about $11.23 million. The buying was still ongoing at the time of monitoring.

• According to Lookonchain, loracle.hl, the largest on-chain PONS short seller, turned a previous unrealized loss of about $6.57 million into an unrealized profit of about $1.4 million as PONS fell. As of September 5, its short position stood at about 17.79 million PONS.

Blockchain Headlines

• On September 9 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $120.2 million, including $78 million from ARKB and $27.2 million from GBTC. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of about $34.75 million over the same period.

• Aave launched its official MCP server, allowing AI agents to read real-time protocol data from Aave V3 and V4 and prepare on-chain transactions, while final transaction signing remains with users.

• U.S. Bank completed a real-time cross-border payment test using its dollar stablecoin USBDC. The transaction was executed via Stellar between its North American and European entities, with minting, redemption, and freeze functions also tested.

• Tether and Fasanara Capital launched StableFund, a $400 million private credit fund that aims to attract up to $3 billion in third-party institutional capital and provide financing to small and medium-sized enterprises through USDT infrastructure.

• Consensys announced that MetaMask will be spun off into an independent entity, with Joe Lubin serving as CEO. The original Consensys will shift toward institutional protocols and Ethereum software businesses.

• PayPal officially launched PYUSDx, a custom stablecoin developer platform that provides enterprises with infrastructure for issuing custom stablecoins backed by PYUSD. The platform has processed more than $100 million so far.

• The U.S. Department of Justice and Treasury Department carried out a joint enforcement action against Xinbi Guarantee, seizing and restricting the disposal of more than $52 million in crypto assets in a single day, with cumulative restricted assets totaling about $938 million.

• Liquid Network released the emergency Elements v23.3.4 update to fix a Range Proof verification cache vulnerability. Functionary nodes have begun upgrading, and the network recovery plan will proceed in phases.

• a16z Crypto released Lattice Jolt, a new open-source zkVM version that shifts its underlying cryptography toward lattice-based systems, supports post-quantum security, and claims 2x to 3x faster prover and verifier performance.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Senate to keep advancing the CLARITY Act, saying the bill is intended to establish a digital-asset regulatory framework and strengthen the United States’ ability to combat misuse of related technologies.

• The European Commission adopted a delegated act proposing to extend the “central contact point” mechanism to crypto-asset service providers, allowing member-state regulators to require relevant firms to designate a local regulatory contact person.

Institutional Insights · Daily Picks

• Barclays: The bank raised its year-end 2026 S&P 500 target from 7,800 to 7,950 and lifted its 2026 EPS forecast from $337 to $365. It said AI investment and economic activity should continue supporting corporate earnings, while remaining cautious on inflation resilience, geopolitical risks, a more hawkish rate environment, and the durability of AI capital expenditure.

• UBS Global Wealth Management: Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele said Brent crude breaking above $100 carries important psychological significance, but for U.S. equities, earnings growth and structural investment may remain more important drivers than oil prices.

• ANZ: Analyst Daniel Hynes said U.S.-Iran retaliatory actions targeting tankers and shipping mean Persian Gulf crude transport could remain disrupted for the foreseeable future. A broader conflict could also cause deeper disruption to already tight global crude supply.

• Glassnode: The latest report said Bitcoin’s main resistance is concentrated in the $83,000–$86,000 range, where the cost basis of about 1.07 million BTC held by long-term holders is located. At the same time, selling pressure near current highs is less than half of August’s level, leaving the market in a range structure where overhead resistance has not yet been decisively broken.