BTCC Daily (9.8) | Yen Hits Seven-Month High, Ethereum Plans L1 Quantum Resistance by 2029

Top Highlights

• The yen briefly strengthened to 152.89 per dollar, a seven-month high. Markets are pricing in about a 97% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by 25 basis points in September.

• BTC pulled back to around $78,500. Market pricing for a September Fed rate hike stood at about 58%, with this week’s PPI and CPI reports becoming the next key variables.

• U.S.-Iran tensions continued to disrupt Middle East energy transportation, with Brent crude approaching $100 per barrel and WTI crude rising toward $94.

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• New York Fed August Survey of Consumer Expectations

• U.S. July consumer credit

Macro Headlines

1. Yen rises to seven-month high as BOJ September hike expectations build further

The yen briefly strengthened to around 152.89 per dollar on Tuesday, reaching a seven-month high and gaining nearly 4% over the past week. Japan’s growth and real-wage data strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue tightening policy. Markets are now heavily pricing a 25-basis-point rate hike next week to 1.25%, while risks of yen carry-trade unwinding are also drawing attention.

2. Japan Q2 GDP revised up to 1.4% annualized growth, real wages rise for seventh straight month

Japan’s second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to an annualized 1.4% from the initial 1.1%, with quarter-on-quarter growth at 0.4%. The decline in capital expenditure was revised to 0.9% from the initial 1.2%. Meanwhile, Japan’s real wages rose 2.4% year over year in July, the biggest increase since May 2021 and the seventh consecutive month of growth. Nominal wages rose 4.7% year over year.

3. China August exports rise 25% year over year, trade surplus reaches $119.09 billion

China’s exports rose 25% year over year in August, while imports increased 28.2%, leaving a trade surplus of $119.09 billion. High-tech and AI-related products became important contributors to export growth, with semiconductor export value more than doubling from a year earlier. Exports of electric vehicles, solar cells, and lithium-ion batteries also maintained rapid growth.

4. Fed September hike odds around 58%, markets await this week’s inflation data

After U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, markets raised pricing again for a Fed rate hike in September. The probability of a 25-basis-point hike currently stands at about 58.4%. U.S. August PPI will be released on Thursday, followed by CPI on Friday. With the Fed entering its blackout period before the September meeting, inflation data will be the main driver of interest-rate expectations.

5. Middle East crude transportation remains disrupted, Brent crude approaches $100

The U.S.-Iran conflict and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities continued to disrupt crude supply. Reuters data showed that Middle East crude transportation volumes have fallen from around 18 million barrels per day to roughly 11 million barrels per day, while about 4 million to 5 million barrels of crude still move through the Strait of Hormuz each day. Alternative export routes and higher non-OPEC output have temporarily limited a further breakout above $100.

Global Asset Performance

• Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down about 1.7% at 65,269.33, as the yen’s rapid appreciation pressured export-related stocks. Korea’s KOSPI Index closed down about 0.6%, with Samsung Electronics down about 0.2% and SK Hynix up about 0.6%. U.S. premarket futures were mixed, with Dow futures down about 0.6%, S&P 500 futures down about 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slightly higher by about 0.1%.

• Crypto: The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 72, in the greed zone. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.67 trillion. BTC traded near $79,000, down about 1% over the past 24 hours, while ETH traded near $2,470. Today’s trending cryptocurrency: INJ rose about 20.3%.

• Energy & Metals: Brent crude rose about 1.9% to $99.2 per barrel, while WTI crude climbed about 3.2% to $94.4 per barrel. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,393 per ounce, while spot silver dropped 0.5% and traded near $66 per ounce.

(Data as of September 8, 15:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

On September 8, according to Coinglass data, BTC, ETH, SOL, ZEC, HYPE, XRP, and other contracts led net outflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours, potentially signaling trading opportunities.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Map

On September 8, according to Coinglass data, based on the current reference price of $78,526 on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, if Bitcoin falls below $77,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $870 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $80,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $840 million. Traders are advised to manage leverage prudently to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

3. Bitcoin Futures Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 16:00 HKT on September 8, the overall Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 1.0382, indicating that bulls currently hold a relative advantage.

4. TradFi Futures Performance

On September 8, energy products stood out among TradFi contracts. CL rose 3.15%, while 24-hour OI increased 17.07%. Semiconductor-related products were broadly under pressure, with SOXL down 5.61% and SNDK and MU falling 2.42% and 1.88%, respectively. Precious metals saw smaller moves, with XAU down 0.38% and XAG nearly flat. Trading volume increased significantly across most products.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• According to Lookonchain, Abraxas Capital added about 13,000 ETH, worth approximately $32.39 million, to hedge its 141,200 ETH short position on Hyperliquid, valued at around $353 million.

• On-chain monitoring showed that Justin Sun recently unstaked another 5,000 ETH from Lido. Since August 26, he has unstaked a total of 10,000 ETH and still holds about 238,000 stETH.

• According to Onchain Lens, about 15,350 HYPE were burned over the past 24 hours, worth approximately $1.32 million. Cumulative HYPE burns reached about 48.45 million tokens, accounting for roughly 4.84% of total supply.

Blockchain Headlines

• The Ethereum Foundation protocol team proposed making Ethereum L1’s execution layer, consensus layer, and data layer fully quantum-resistant by December 2029.

• Nine Swiss firms, including UBS, PostFinance, Sygnum, and Raiffeisen, launched a sandbox test for the Swiss franc stablecoin CHFD. CHFD is pegged 1:1 to the Swiss franc, with SIX and TWINT joining the test.

• South Korean digital-asset custodian BDACS adopted LayerZero’s OFT standard for the won stablecoin KRW1 to enable native cross-chain interoperability.

• Australia’s AUSTRAC canceled, suspended, or refused to renew the registrations of 45 remittance and virtual-asset service providers over the past year, citing issues such as ceased operations, insolvency, and elevated money-laundering and terrorism-financing risks.

• Japan’s San-in Godo Bank, NTT Data, and Securitize Japan launched a joint study on digital securities, first assessing the feasibility of issuing bond-type security tokens by the bank itself.

• Ondo Finance stopped minting USDY on the Aptos and Noble networks starting September 8, while other supported networks remain unaffected. The related USDY remains fully backed by reserves.

• Ethereum’s Hegotá upgrade priority list placed FOCIL (EIP-7805) and Frame Transactions (EIP-8141) in the S-tier “must-include” category. The latter will provide a foundation for native account abstraction and post-quantum signature upgrades.

• AUSTRAC said its regulatory actions against virtual-asset service providers will continue to focus on entities that lack operational capacity, are non-compliant with registration requirements, or carry elevated financial-crime risks.

Institutional Insights · Daily Picks

• Goldman Sachs: The bank raised its December 2026 Brent and WTI oil price forecasts by $5 to $85 and $80, respectively, and lifted its 2027 forecasts to $80 and $75. If Gulf output in 2027 remains about 4 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels, Goldman Sachs sees a risk that Brent crude could break above $120 per barrel.

• UBS: The bank now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in both September and December, citing resilient August employment data, the Fed’s recent hawkish communication, and inflation pressures that remain higher than previously expected.

• State Street Investment Management: Fixed-income strategist Masahiko Loo said USD/JPY falling below 155 triggered further yen short-covering. If carry trades continue to unwind, USD/JPY could move further toward the mid-140s.

• XWIN Research Japan: The research team said Bitcoin’s market structure is improving, with ETF inflows and whale buying supporting price. However, BTC still needs stronger spot demand to make a decisive break above the $82,000–$83,000 zone.