BTCC Daily (9.4) | Bitcoin Breaks Above $82,000, ETF Records $731 Million in Daily Net Inflows

Top Highlights

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivered a dovish signal, with market pricing for a September rate hike falling from around 63% to approximately 50%; the U.S. August nonfarm payroll report will be released tonight.

• BTC briefly broke above $82,000 overnight and is now trading near $80,800; U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $731 million in daily net inflows, the highest since January 14.

• U.S.-Iran tensions continue to disrupt energy transportation, with only four commodity vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, well below the 10-day average of around 15 vessels.

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• U.S. August nonfarm payrolls
• U.S. August unemployment rate

Macro Headlines

1. Waller sends dovish signal, September Fed hike pricing falls to around 50%

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if upcoming inflation data continues to show easing price pressures, he would favor keeping rates unchanged at the September 15-16 meeting. However, if inflation reaccelerates, he could still support a rate hike. Following his remarks, market pricing for a September hike fell from around 63% to near 50%, while short-term Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar declined.

2. U.S. August payrolls expected to rise by 56,000, unemployment rate seen at 4.1%

The U.S. August nonfarm payroll report will be released today. A Reuters poll expects payroll gains of around 56,000, improving from July’s 23,000 decline. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, while annual average hourly earnings growth is forecast to slow from 3.2% to 3.0%. Following Waller’s comments that inflation data remains central to September policy decisions, the employment report will be a key test of whether the labor market is cooling further.

3. ISM services PMI rises to 55.4, price index reaches nearly four-year high

The U.S. August ISM services PMI rose from 54.1 in July to 55.4, beating expectations. The new orders index climbed to 60.9, the highest in roughly three and a half years, while the employment index remained in contraction territory at 47.8. The prices paid index rose to 72.6, the highest since 2022, indicating that inflation pressures have not fully disappeared despite continued service-sector expansion.

4. Strait of Hormuz shipping remains disrupted, Brent crude stays near $95

Kpler data showed only four commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from nine the previous day and the 10-day average of around 15. U.S.-Iran military tensions remain unresolved, continuing to affect Gulf oil and LNG transportation. Brent crude has gained more than 6% this week and remains near a six-week high.

5. Yen posts biggest weekly gain since July as Japan warns against excessive FX volatility

Falling Fed hike expectations and expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening pushed the yen higher. The yen has gained around 2.5% this week, with USD/JPY falling toward 156. Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs Atsushi Mimura said the government will continue closely monitoring exchange-rate moves and is prepared to act against excessive volatility.

Global Asset Performance

• Equities: Nikkei 225 rose 1.26% to 65,020.94. South Korea’s KOSPI gained 1.64% to 6,687.21, with Samsung Electronics up about 2.2% and SK Hynix up about 3.2%. U.S. stock futures were mixed before the open, with Nasdaq 100 futures up around 0.5%, S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, and Dow futures down 0.1%.

• Crypto: The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 77, in the greed zone. Total crypto market capitalization was around $2.71 trillion, up 3.75% over the past 24 hours, with trading volume expanding significantly. BTC traded near $80,790, up 3.86%; ETH rose 4.16% to around $2,508. Trending assets included ZEC (+15.8%), XRP (+6%), and HYPE (+4.8%).

• Energy & Metals: Brent crude fell about 0.5% to $95.05 per barrel, while WTI declined about 0.7% to $90.66. Spot gold traded near $4,469.26 per ounce, while silver fell about 0.5% to $66.59.

(Data as of September 4, 15:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

According to Coinglass data on September 4, BTC, ETH, ZEC, SPCX, and HYPE led net inflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Map

According to Coinglass data, based on the current Bitcoin price of $80,970, a drop below $79,000 could trigger around $1.9 billion in cumulative long liquidations across major CEXs. A breakout above $83,000 could trigger around $1.4 billion in cumulative short liquidations. Traders should manage leverage carefully to avoid large-scale liquidations.

3. Bitcoin Futures Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 16:00 HKT on September 4, the global Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 1.2881, indicating long positions currently hold the advantage.

4. TradFi Futures Performance

TradFi futures markets broadly moved higher on September 4, led by KORU (+7.48%) and SPCX (+7.20%). Interest in SPCX and MU increased significantly, with trading volume rising 74.39% and 60.87% respectively, while open interest also increased. Gold (XAU) and SNDK both recorded over $4 billion in trading volume, becoming liquidity centers; however, gold open interest fell 12.40% over 24 hours, indicating some high-level positions were being closed.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• According to Lookonchain, whale address 0x6436 accumulated around 1.62 million HYPE over the past 10 days, worth approximately $133.8 million. The address bought 1.28 million HYPE three months ago at an average price of around $70.

• According to Lookonchain, an Ethereum whale sold all 167,855 ETH over the past five days, with the assets valued at approximately $408 million.

• According to Onchain Lens, a whale deposited 6 million TRUMP tokens to exchanges over the past day, worth around $13.85 million. The deposit wallet later received another 1.2 million TRUMP worth around $2.86 million.

• According to CoinGlass data, Hyperliquid whales currently hold around $7.653 billion in positions, including $3.684 billion in longs and $3.969 billion in shorts, with a long/short ratio of about 0.93.

Blockchain Headlines

• On September 3 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $731 million in net inflows, the largest daily inflow since January 14. BlackRock IBIT recorded $454 million in inflows.

• U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $141 million in net inflows, including $72.07 million into BlackRock ETHA and $65.11 million into Fidelity FETH.

• U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $6.14 million in net inflows, with Franklin XRPZ receiving $3.19 million. Total ETF net assets reached approximately $1.552 billion.

• Standard Chartered launched spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading services for institutional clients in the UAE, becoming the first global systemically important bank to offer such services locally.

• Revolut received conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national bank and plans to offer products including stablecoins after receiving remaining regulatory approvals.

• UK investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown opened access to nine Bitcoin and Ethereum ETNs for eligible clients, with issuers including BlackRock, WisdomTree, 21Shares, Invesco, CoinShares, and Bitwise.

• Stablecoin payments infrastructure company Diameter Pay raised $10 million in Series A funding led by CMT Digital and Lightspeed Faction. The company said it has processed more than $10 billion in payments this year.

• Strive CEO Matt Cole said the company could become the world’s second-largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder by year-end. The company had already entered the top ranks of corporate BTC holders by late August.

• The U.S. CFTC is seeking dismissal of CME’s lawsuit over the regulatory classification of crypto perpetual futures. The dispute centers on whether perpetual contracts should be treated as futures or swaps.

Institutional View · Daily Picks

• BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas said Bitcoin ETF inflows are heavily concentrated in IBIT, representing institutional allocation rather than short-term trading. Key near-term variables remain U.S. employment and CPI data, as well as whether ETF inflows can continue over the coming sessions.

• UBS Global Wealth Management CIO Mark Haefele said AI capital spending and U.S. economic resilience can continue supporting growth, while moderating inflation may allow the Fed room to keep rates unchanged.

• Bank of America, citing EPFR data, said money market funds attracted $30 billion, bond funds $18.3 billion, equity funds $16.1 billion, gold $3.2 billion, and crypto assets around $500 million in the week ending September 2. Crypto assets have attracted $5.5 billion in cumulative inflows over the past five weeks.

• JPMorgan and BNP Paribas both adjusted their ECB forecasts to another 25-basis-point hike in December, citing still-elevated energy costs, resilient euro-area growth, and persistent core inflation pressures. Markets are also pricing in a near-certain ECB rate hike on September 10.