NFP Looms as BTC Surges Back Above $80K. Can It Hold ?

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On September 4, global risk appetite strengthened markedly. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller struck a dovish tone, prompting expectations for a September rate hike to cool rapidly. U.S. Treasury yields fell, while the U.S. Dollar Index slipped below the 99 level. Capital flowed back into risk assets, lifting equities, gold, and Bitcoin across the board. BTC briefly climbed above $82,000, while gold temporarily moved above $4,500.

Rate Hike Expectations Ease as Markets Await Nonfarm Payrolls

Waller said on Thursday that if inflation continues to slow, he would be inclined to support keeping interest rates unchanged in September. Following his remarks, markets quickly scaled back bets on a September rate hike. CME data showed the probability of a September hike falling back to around 50%. U.S. Treasury yields declined in tandem, while the U.S. Dollar Index dropped below 99.

However, the Federal Reserve’s policy path remains uncertain. Both headline and core PCE inflation for July remain above the Fed’s target, shifting market attention to the U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report due today, as well as the August CPI report scheduled for September 11.

The U.S. Department of Labor will release the August nonfarm payrolls report at 08:30 ET on September 4. The market expects payrolls to increase by around 56,000, with the unemployment rate remaining near 4.1%-4.2%. A clear weakening in employment could further reduce expectations for a rate hike, while stronger-than-expected data could trigger a rebound in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.

Oil’s rally has paused but prices remain elevated, while developments in the Middle East continue to represent an important variable for energy inflation. In the near term, markets are trading on the theme of “easing rate-hike pressure,” but the nonfarm payrolls report and subsequent inflation data could still reshape policy expectations.

Tech Stocks Rally as Crypto-Related Equities Rebound Sharply

All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher for a second consecutive session on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.18%, the Nasdaq gained 1.40%, and the S&P 500 advanced 1.06%. Technology stocks rallied broadly, with SpaceX up more than 6%, Tesla gaining over 4%, Meta rising more than 3%, Microsoft climbing over 2%, and Nvidia adding 1.8%.

Nvidia’s announcement that it would acquire Hugging Face continued to reinforce expectations for further expansion of the AI ecosystem. The simultaneous recovery of the high-beta AI and crypto themes became an important force driving the rebound in the Nasdaq and broader risk assets.

Crypto-related stocks performed even more strongly. MSTR surged more than 17%, Circle rose 16.44%, and Coinbase gained 10.14%. This suggests that amid a weaker U.S. dollar, declining rate-hike expectations, and BTC’s breakout, capital is rapidly rebuilding exposure to high-beta crypto-related assets.

During the Asian session on September 4, Japanese and South Korean equities also closed higher. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.26%, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained 1.64%. SK Hynix climbed more than 3%, and Samsung Electronics rose 2.2%.

BTC Reclaims $80,000 as ETF Inflows Return in Force

The crypto market rebounded sharply. According to BTCC market data, BTC is currently trading at $81,046, up 4.64% over the past 24 hours, after reaching an intraday high of around $82,108. From a technical perspective, BTC rallied rapidly from around $77,000 and reclaimed the $80,000 threshold, putting short-term bulls back in control.

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Fund flows are a key source of support for the latest rebound. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $731 million in net inflows yesterday, marking a recent high. At the same time, spot Ethereum ETFs saw around $141 million in net inflows. The renewed acceleration in ETF inflows indicates that institutional buying is returning and has been an important driver behind BTC’s move above $80,000.

Technically, BTC briefly broke above its 50-week moving average near $81,000, but whether it can hold above this level remains critical. If BTC maintains the $81,000-$82,100 range, it could continue testing $83,000 in the short term. If it falls back below $79,000, it may retest the $77,000-$76,300 support zone.

September has historically been one of Bitcoin’s more volatile months. Over the past 15 years, BTC has posted negative returns in September on nine occasions, suggesting that the current rally still faces seasonal headwinds. However, seasonal patterns also show that the fourth quarter has typically been stronger, providing historical support for the market’s more optimistic outlook on the months ahead.

ETH Reclaims $2,500 as HYPE Hits Another Record High

ETH followed BTC higher, returning to around $2,500 and slightly outperforming Bitcoin in the short term. Technically, $2,520-$2,550 is the first major resistance zone. A high-volume breakout could open the way for ETH to test $2,600, while downside support is seen at $2,450 and in the $2,380-$2,400 range.

There has also been new progress in institutional adoption. Standard Chartered announced that, through the Dubai International Financial Centre, it will offer spot BTC and ETH trading to institutional clients in the United Arab Emirates, becoming the first global systemically important bank in the region to launch such a service and adding to expectations for incremental institutional participation.

Among major altcoins, HYPE briefly broke above $88 to reach another all-time high before pulling back to around $86, with a 24-hour gain of approximately 6%. UNI continued to advance, rising more than 10% on the day and currently trading at $6.3.

Trading Watch

The current market move is being driven by a combination of improving macro expectations, strong ETF inflows, and a technical breakout. Whether BTC can firmly establish itself above $81,000 is the key signal for determining whether the rebound can continue.

In the short term, if BTC holds above $81,000, attention can remain on resistance at $83,000. If it falls below $79,000, traders should be alert to the possibility of a pullback toward the $77,000 area. For ETH, the key levels to watch are a breakout above $2,550 and support at $2,450. Market volatility could increase significantly before and after the nonfarm payrolls release, so traders should remain mindful of risk management and avoid blindly chasing sharp rallies.

BTCC continues to offer its “First Copy Trade, Losses Covered” promotion. New users can try following strategies from experienced traders, but position sizing remains important, especially in highly volatile markets where excessive leverage can amplify risk.

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Risk Warning: Some of the views in this article are drawn from public media sources and are for reference only. They do not constitute any investment advice or trading recommendation. Markets involve risks, and trading should be approached with caution. Please ensure you have appropriate risk controls in place.