Global Trade Showdown: Countries Scramble for 11th-Hour Deals Before Thursday’s Tariff Deadline

Trade desks are in chaos as nations race against the clock to dodge an economic bullet. With Thursday's tariff deadline looming like a guillotine, backroom negotiations have hit fever pitch.

Hedge funds are already pricing in the fallout—because nothing makes financiers happier than profiting from geopolitical turmoil. The real question: will anyone actually win this high-stakes game of chicken, or are we all just paying for the privilege of watching markets burn?

New details for some nations — and a focus on India and Switzerland

There is also some new clarity on some technical details around how the new tariff landscape will likely work beginning at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday.

US customs officials this week offered additional technical guidance in a new document on how it will handle some tariff exemptions.

The news there may give some select importers a short-term breather. But with a full tally, according to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff rate is now expected to rise to 15.2% if duties go forward as planned.

That's a jump from current rates of 13.3% and another jump from the 2.3% duties seen in 2024 before Trump took office.

The overall landscape set to be in effect Thursday will cover nearly every country on the globe. It also comes after Trump and his team set "bespoke" rates largely based on the trade deficit, with many of America's top trading partners seeing a key new standard of 15% tariff, while others will see higher rates.

Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances

Countries from the European Union to South Korea to Japan struck deals at that 15% rate, but open questions remain.

Other Asian countries have struck deals in the 19%-20% range. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer recently said on CBS that the published rates included many agreements, "some of these deals are announced, some are not," with other nations simply being dictated tariffs based on the level of the trade deficit.

Switzerland is one nation for which the US has dictated tariffs. Its delegation will be in Washington on Tuesday to push for lower rates.

But on Tuesday morning, Trump suggested that it would be an uphill climb and that a recent call with the country didn't go well because "they essentially pay no tariffs," even as talks are clearly set to continue there.

As for India, any immediate offramp appears unlikely because of that nation's connections with Russia and Russian oil.

A note Tuesday from Capital Economics suggested that India could, in theory, offer concessions to diversify its energy sources, "but we doubt that India would make a wholehearted effort to wean itself off Russian oil [as it could upset relations and] it would not play well to be seen caving to Trump's demands."

At the same time, reports from Bloomberg and the Times of India revealed that two top aides to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are traveling not to the US but to Russia in the coming days and weeks — even amid Trump's ever-escalating threats.

Trump on Tuesday morning suggested talks are on ice for now and will be complicated when they resume, adding that "the sticking point with India is that tariffs are too high."

This story has been updated with additional developments.

Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

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